Global Warming Uncertainties - And Response

Sunday, August 12, 2007

So one thing you can say for sure, it is hot in Chattanooga. So why is it so hot right now? Is it global warming? Is it just the cycle that weather goes through?

Not only do global warmers claim that temperatures are going up, but that there are supposed to be more storms like hurricanes. I noticed that NOAA has lowered the predicted number of storms for 2007 twice already.

I am not sure I am qualified to answer these questions or be able to explain the storm discrepancies, but I can look at facts and maybe they can help find the answer.

It is supposed to be around 98 degrees today in Chattanooga. That is not a record by the way. If you are a global warming advocate, then we should see records being broken left and right this year in the Tennessee Valley. Global warming should also tell us that the last 10 or 15 years should be record numbers as well, but again the facts do not show that either.

In the month of August here are the decades that hold daily record temperatures for Chattanooga.

1900’s has 1 record
1930’s hold 7 record days
1940’s hold 2 records
1950’s 4 records hot days
1960’s 2 records
` 1980’s 8 record hot days
1990’s 6 records
2000’s only 1 record hot day

So from the facts, we have 15 record hot days since 1970 and 16 record hot days before 1969. Just in case you need a few more facts, during the month of July historically we have only four days during the 1990’s that hold record temperatures. The 1950’s have the most records for hot days with most of those exceeding 100 degrees. There seems to have been a heat wave across our area during the 1950’s in both July and August.

Out of the 31 days in July, 12 of the hottest days occurred during the 1950’s, almost half. So it does not seem like we are getting hotter around here.

From the facts, global warming does not have enough data to make a real decision yet or maybe it is just political scare tactics. We should just wait before jumping to conclusions at least with historical data that does not match the politicians’ rhetoric.

Johnny Franks
seechatt@yahoo.com

* * *

To imagine that the world's best scientists and meteorologists have somehow conspired, in a folly of ignorance and/or evil, a vast plot to fool the world's population into being concerned about global warming and then to attempt to out the plot of these scientists and meteorologists on the basis of Chattanooga's weather is beyond ludicrous.

The polar ice cap is melting. Greenland is melting. Species are dying. Nations around the world are feeling the effects. For over a century mankind has been drawing billions of gallons of oil and billions of tons of coal out of the earth and effectively setting it on fire. We're continuing to do this every year at an accelerating rate. Added to this are myriad other industrial and commercial processes around the world. This has never before been the case in the history of life on earth.

Of course, global warming is happening, and big time.

A seasonal lack of hurricanes or the failure of Chattanooga's average temperatures to break all records means virtually nothing in assessing the effects of what mankind has done and continues to do to the frail atmosphere of Earth that we, and all living creatures. depend on for our very lives. I hope everyone understands this.

Dismiss global warming because Chattanooga's temperatures aren't breaking all records? C'mon.

David Saluk
aluk22@yahoo.com

* * *

Before we go blaming man, and our very society, for global warming, perhaps we need to understand that there are also outside sources for warmer weather.

Is it our industrialized society that's responsible for the decrease in size of the Martian ice caps? Let's see now...a decrease in the size of ice caps generally means warmer temperatures globally. Throw in the mix that solar radiation has increased due to sunspot activity and viola! We have global warming. Oops, that's Mars. Wonder what effect it might have on planet Terra.

Wasn't it not too many years ago that we had an entire month, July, with temperatures over 100 degrees F? Was it 1992 or 1993? I'm getting old, lamenting the loss of my t-squares and triangles and vacuum tubes, my analog meters and vellum drawing paper, and the old memory isn't what it used to be.

Wasn't it just last week that NASA admitted they had a "Y2K" error in their weather reporting system that caused them to erroneously report 1998 as the hottest year on record since records have been kept? Hmmm...

In August of last year the old mercury here in Chattanooga hit 95 degrees F for the first time in what, two or three years previously? Do they still use mercury in thermometers or have they gone to more electronic means of measurement that lend themselves to remote data acquisition?

And then we need to actually look at how temperature measurements are logged and data collected, the weather station location, and how the local physical environment has changed.

Royce E. Burrage, Jr.
Royce@OfficiallyChapped.org

* * *

Here is Jim Hansen's comment about the error that was found.

Contrary to some of the statements flying around the Internet, there is no effect on the rankings of global temperature. Also our prior analysis had 1934 as the warmest year in the U.S., and it continues to be the warmest year, both before and after the correction to post 2000 temperatures. However, as we note in that paper, the 1934 and 1998 temperature are practically the same, the difference being much smaller than the uncertainty. Somehow the flaw in 2001-2007 U.S. data was advertised on the Internet and for twodays I have been besieged by rants that I have wronged the President, that I must “step down”, or that I must “vanish”. Hmm, I am not very good at magic tricks.

My apologies if the quick response that I sent to Andy Revkin and several other journalists, including the suggestion that it was a tempest inside somebody's teapot dome, and that perhaps a light was not on upstairs, was immoderate. It was not ad hominem, though.
Jim

Royce and Johnny, if I want to learn the facts about Global Warming I will check the NASA website. However, If I want to know the fastest speed at which someone can survive rolling off a turnip truck, I'll give you two a jingle.

Mike Bascom
North Chattanooga
mikeb37415@lycos.com



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