A recent survey by the Tarrance Group in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Congressional Districts finds that Rep. Zach Wamp "is the overwhelming favorite in the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination."

The survey does not include former Sen. Bill Frist, who has not yet indicated whether he plans to make the race.

Rep. Wamp, in an email to Friends of Zach Wamp, said, "As my family prepares for the opportunities ahead, I have attached the following results from a scientific survey that was conducted across East Tennessee Dec. 14-15 showing an extraordinary approval rating of almost 13 to 1 among Republicans. I am a very fortunate public servant and thank you so very much."

The report says the three districts comprised 56% of the vote in the last non-Presidential Republican primary.

It says, "On a trial ballot, Zach Wamp has 48% support, including 24% 'definite' support while Bill Haslam has just 20% support. Wamp has majority support among some key conservative voting blocs like CD3 voters (86%), Chattanooga DMA voters (91%), very conservative voters (54%), male Evangelicals (56%), and working men (56%). Wamp also enjoys a decided advantage in terms of image with a majority (56%) of this electorate holding a favorable image of him and a fav/unfav ratio exceeding even that of Senator Alexander.

"In contrast, just 28% of this electorate holds a favorable image of Haslam, including just 38% support in the Knoxville DMA.

"This primary election looks to be shaped by concerns about the economy as 40% of this electorate selects the state economy (22%) or jobs (18%) as their top issue.

"In sum, as the Republican GOP electorate looks ahead to the 2010 gubernatorial race, it is clear that Rep. Zach Wamp is the strong favorite to win the GOP nomination in the most critical region of the state."

Here is a memorandum from the Tarrance Group dealing with the survey:

Topics in the survey are: 1. Political Environment, 2. Name identification of key political figures, and 3. Primary ballot test. Each of these items will be discussed in this memorandum.

Political Environment

Two questions assess the political environment – direction of the state and most important issue.

Direction of the State

A majority (51%) of Republican primary voters believes the state is headed in the right direction, including 19% who “strongly” believe this. However, one-third (33%) of these voters believe the state is on the wrong track, including 20% who “strongly” believe this. Another 16% are unsure.

A majority of both Wamp voters (58%) and Haslam voters (56%) believe the state is headed in the right direction, indicating a focus of the primary campaign will be who has the best plans for continuing to move the state forward. Most important issue Republican primary voters are given a list of seven (7) issues and asked to select the issue that is most important to them. Responses are summarized in the chart below.

Issue % Selecting Tennessee’s economy 22% Jobs 18% Public education 16% Health care 13% Taxes 11% Crime and drugs 9% Improving roads and bridges 2% As seen above, pocketbook issues are the dominant concern as 40% of GOP primary voters select either the economy or jobs. Concerns about the state economy are driven by Chattanooga DMA residents (30%), 35-44 year olds (29%), male Evangelicals (28%), working men (27%), and working women (28%). Jobs are a top concern for Tri-Cities DMA residents (26%), women over age 55 (24%), high school only graduates (25%), and those undecided on the Wamp-Haslam ballot (25%). Public education has notable interest from 35-44 year olds (24%), women under age 55 (28%), parents (26%), and college graduates (23%).Health care is a notable concern for women over age 55 (19%), female evangelicals (19%),and working women (19%). Concerns about taxes are driven by working men (16%).

Name identifications

Four political figures are tested – Lamar Alexander, Ron Ramsey, Zach Wamp, and Bill Haslam. Voter responses are summarized in the chart below. Name % Favorable % UnfavorableFav/UnfavRatio Lamar Alexander 87% 8% 11.1 :1 Zach Wamp56% 4% 12.8 :1 Bill Haslam28% 5% 5.1:1 Ron Ramsey 25% 4% 6.7:1 As seen on the previous page, Alexander enjoys a nearly universal favorable image.

Among the likely gubernatorial contenders, Wamp has the highest favorable rating, the strongest fav/unfav ratio, and is the best known candidate. Wamp has an extraordinarily high favorable rating in CD3 (92%) and from Chattanooga DMA voters (92%). In addition, he has a strongly favorable image among key GOP primary voting blocs like very conservative voters (63%), male evangelicals (63%), parents (62%), and the most likely 50% of the electorate (77%). Primary ballot Next, Republican primary voters are asked their preference in a hypothetical gubernatorial primary match-up between Zach Wamp and Bill Haslam. On this ballot, Wamp receives 48% support, including 24% “definite” support. Haslam has just 20% support, including 7% “definite” support. Another 32% of the GOP electorate is undecided. This puts Wamp in an incredibly strong position. He has more “definite” (24%) support than Haslam has total support (20%). Wamp has an impressive level of support from CD3 voters (86%), Chattanooga DMA voters (91%), and those with a favorable image of him (74%). In addition, he has strong majority support from very conservative voters (54%), male Evangelicals (56%), and working men (56%).

Conclusions

Looking at upcoming gubernatorial primary, Wamp stands is a very strong position to win the Republican nomination. He is best known and most well liked potential candidate with a fav/unfav ratio exceeding even that of Senator Alexander. His support on the ballot is more than double that of Haslam. This looks to be a campaign in which pocketbook issues will be dominant. Should Wamp run for the gubernatorial nomination, he should be prepared to speak frequently about his plans for improving the economic situation in Tennessee.