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Roy Exum: My Top 10 Picks - Week 1

Friday, August 29, 2008 - by Roy Exum
Roy Exum
Roy Exum

Back in March of this year the University of Alabama Student Government Association held its annual elections. A kid named Julio Jones finished third in the voting, this despite the fact he was still attending high school down in Foley, Ala.

That's how strong the ballyhoo was this spring on the Tuscaloosa campus because Julio, a wide receiver of Superman proportion, is the most storied football player to have never played a game in the Crimson Tide's history. Suffice it to say that Jesus got seven less write-in votes than Julio on the SGA ballot.

Jones was the top high school player in America last year according to ESPN and, just as all of the sages predicted, he'll start in his first-ever college game tomorrow night when Alabama plays Clemson on national TV (ABC) at 8 p.m.

The freshman is 6-4, weighs 215 and runs a 40-yard dash in a sizzling 4.4 seconds. Moreover, he can stand flat-footed on the ground and then spring 41 inches in the air. The Tide faithful has visions of a freshman debut like Georgia's Hershel Walker did that afternoon at Tennessee, but remember Clemson is the preseason favorite in the ACC for a reason.

That’s what makes this weekend special. People who hunt raccoons have a wonderful saying about their dogs. No matter what the pedigree of a coon hound, they are wont to say, "When the tailgate drops, the talking stops." The exact same is true for the first game in college football.

Now is when Bear Bryant, the legend whose championship teams are still hallowed, used to tell his players, "The hay is in the barn. Now let's go out there and have some fun."

So for those of us who wish that college football was played every Saturday of the year, this is a special weekend indeed and here are my top 10 picks as the bell finally begins to ring:

MICHIGAN – After last year's disastrous loss in the opener to Appalachian State, Michigan had an equally embarrassing season so the thought here is that Utah is in trouble against much better athletes who are "very motivated." Michigan, with new coaches and an untested quarterback, is a 3-point favorite but the Utes have neither the speed nor the brawn to match a program so eager to rise back to stardom. My Pick? Michigan, 24-13.

MEMPHIS – Houston Nutt, who this time last year was expecting big things out of Arkansas and his slashing runner Darren McFadden, has abruptly ended up in Oxford and Mississippi, still reeling after that last nut who was its coach, hasn't had time to adjust while Tommy West’s Memphis is delighted to be a 7-point underdog in this one. The Tigers are a curious mix of talent but watch Memphis capitalize on stability and sheer want-to in the annual delta showdown. My Pick? Memphis, 14-10.

MISS. STATE – With a cautious eye on the hurricane bearing down gulf coast, MSU arrives in Ruston, La., on a mission. Last year Bulldog coach Sylvester Croom was the SEC coach of the Year and the feeling is his players, gutty at times, earned it for him. Now they want more and it all starts tomorrow before the intra-SEC tests begin. State is today a disciplined, well-oiled machine and the fact La. Tech is getting 8 points from the bookies isn't enough. My pick? Miss State, 27-7.

FLORIDA – The Gators are a 35-point favorite over Hawaii and, believe me, when the Rainbows hit that wall of heat and humidity in Gainesville at 12:30 tomorrow afternoon their leis will wilt faster than the ice melts in the cups in Section W of Florida Field. With Heisman winner Tebow more terrifying than a great white shark, Hawaii is getting ready to see more raw speed than at any time in the school's history. The trouble is, the other team has it. The Gators are now 38-1 in recent openers and Hawaii will have "tired legs" by the time Urban Meyer plays everybody on his bench. My Pick? Florida, 55-10.

MISSOURI – In the 1973 Belmont Stakes, two horses – Secretariat and Sham – were neck-and-neck for the first half of the race and then Secretariat, a horse of considerable renown, won it by 31 lengths. At Missouri, they show this film over and over. Now ole Mizzou is the chalk in the Big 12 and, after a No. 4 finish in last year’s polls, the Tigers are cocked and loaded. Illinois has some spunk but this is a Top Five team and the Illini's 9-point spread simply is not enough. My Pick? Missouri, 34-14.

SOUTHERN CAL – Oh my goodness, here is Pete Carroll's feisty bunch coming into Charlottesville and UVA, as gentlemanly as they well may be, ain't ever played a crowd that has won 11 games in each of the last six years. USC could win in the NFL and the Trojans, a 20-point favorite, need to lean hard in this rare performance before the eastern voters. The Cavs are good but this is a case of USC's gigantic size and speed and skill becoming too overwhelming for any scholars in the ACC. My Pick? USC, 41-17.

ALABAMA – Coach Saban's Tide comes to Atlanta a 4-point underdog but that's just where Nick wants 'em -- hungry. The drought at Alabama has left them restless and Clemson, who well may be the preseason pick in the ACC, isn't ready for the foundation the innovative Saban has now built in Mike Shula's wake. The recruiting has been stunning under Saban but the coaching of the good talent that was already there will show mightly in the Georgia Dome tomorrow. Tide QB John Parker Wilson is eager to shake his "mediocre" mantle and while Clemson will contain WR Jones, watch what the rest of those in crimson will do. My Pick? Alabama, 21-14.

AUBURN – Tommy Tuberville has hired some tremendous under-talent in his coaching ranks and the Auburn team that will "spread" against La.-Monroe tomorrow could be frightening to other SEC teams when they review the tapes on Sunday. The "spread" offense, to the purist, is somewhat a variation of the old Tennessee single wing but, as was proven deadly under the General in Knoxville and in high school circles like South Pittsburg, the ability to "spread" a bewildered defense is a joy when you own it. Auburn has enough talent to make it lethal and La.-Monroe, a 20-point dog, will schedule somebody else for the opener in years to come. My Pick? Auburn, 51-7.

SUNDAY: KENTUCKY – Rich Brooks, who is a football historian as well as the UK coach, finally brought the Cats into the light last fall by using age-old fundamentals and tried-and-true methodology. Read "blocking" and "tackling" here. Louisville, flashy as of late, is now out of big-name bullets and ole Rich has kept plugging along. Watch for this beautiful state rivalry to soon take a turn in the "blue" way and with the 'Cats a 4-point point underdog in this rare 3:30 game on Sunday, don't look for a high-scoring game like last year. My Pick? Kentucky 37-15.

MONDAY: TENNESSEE – This is the scariest early game of the year with Tennessee, chock full of talent, going up against quite an unknown in UCLA. The Bruins, with new coaches and the promise of new formations, aren't exactly a patsy and Tennessee being favored by 7 is dicey. UT QB Compton is also an unknown performer so a big part of what happens depends on the Vol offensive line being protective early. We know UT's running backs and linebackers are proven but against what? What will UCA's brilliant coaches pull out of the hat, especially def. coordinator Norm Chow after having spent all that time in Nashville studying the Big Orange while wearing Titan Blue? The Vols have decent speed and size but, according to reports, UCLA's kids match up well on the two-deep. The reassuring thing is that UCLA will use some NFL stuff, which hasn't ever worked in the college game, and will play conservatively, which the Vols should capitalize on. Still, this is the SEC game that insiders call shaky and it'll be fun to watch at 8:00 on Monday night. My Pick: Tennessee 17-15.

royexum@aol.com


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