Roy Exum: Why Punt?

Tuesday, September 22, 2009 - by Roy Exum
Roy Exum
Roy Exum

In the current issue of Sports Illustrated magazine which went on news stands Monday, there is one of the most delicious stories the magazine has featured in years and it just might revolutionize the sport of football as we now know it.

At the same time, it gives those of us who always picture life’s water glass as “half full” further fodder to “go for it” one last time before throwing in the towel. In life, whether in business, love, or on our athletic fields, there are literally thousands of “happy endings” that have resulted because we tried ”just one more time.”

Here’s Sports Illustrated’s finding: On the western edge of Little Rock, Ark., there is a high school football team coached by a wizard named Kevin Kelly. Pulaski Academy’s roster doesn’t include a punter because, quite simply, they’d rather “go for it” every time the team is faced with a fourth down.

It has always been conventional wisdom that if any football team’s offense fails to make a first down on a four-down series, you punt the ball away on the last down. Opposing defenses love “three and out” but Coach Kelly thinks that’s nuts. Instead of trying to drive the ball 10 yards in three tries, use all four chances. The reason? He can prove that it makes more sense.

Here’s what he told SI writer Jon Wertheim: "The average punt in high school nets you 30 yards, but we convert around half our fourth downs, so it doesn't make sense to give up the ball," Kelley says. "Besides, if your offense knows it has four downs instead of three, it totally changes the game. I don't believe in punting and really can't ever see doing it again."

Think about that. How many times in life have you gone “three and out,” punting the ball away instead of giving the game one more try?

Coach Kelly says that football teams should take a different view. In the magazine he said even when you are back deep in your own territory, never punt. “When a team punts from that deep, the opponents will take possession inside the 40-yard line and will then score a touchdown 77% of the time. If they recover on downs inside the 10, they'll score a touchdown 92% of the time.

"So [forsaking] a punt, you give your offense a chance to stay on the field. And if you miss, the odds of the other team scoring only increase 15 percent. It's like someone said, '[Punting] is what you do on fourth down,' and everyone did it without asking why."

Is that not great or what? When it comes to the kicking game, which wise coaches have proven is just as integral to success as a good offense and defense, he’s just as radical. He tries an on-sides kick every time. As Wertheim writes in SI, “According to Kelley's figures, after a kickoff the receiving team, on average, takes over at its own 33-yard line.

“After a failed onside kick the team assumes possession at its 48. Through the years Pulaski has recovered about a quarter of its onside kicks. "So you're giving up 15 yards for a one-in-four chance to get the ball back," says Kelley. "I'll take that every time!"

Wertheim also points out that in 2006 an economist at Cal-Berkley, David Romer, did a complex study of the NFL and found that in three pro seasons, there were 1,068 fourth-down situations where, mathematically, it would have made more sense for a team to “go for it” rather than punting it away. Instead, the NFL teams he studied tried to “go for it” only 109 times.

The reason? Kellley believes it is no more than unfounded fear. “No coach gets fired – or ripped on talk radio – for punting on fourth-and-four.” Conversely, when a coach “goes for it” and fails, his proverbial seat gets hot. We’ve all seen it – instead of applauding the courage, society wants to kill a goat.

Now, flash to the Arkansas 5A state championship last year. Coach Kelley’s Pulaski Bruins are up 35-32 with the ball deep in their own territory. On the final drive of that title game, the Bruins converted on four straight fourth-down situations instead of protecting their teetering lead with a punt and, indeed, won the state title.

The moral of the story: you have just as good a chance to make it in life as you do when you kick it away. Further, there is a high school coach in Arkansas, one whose kids have won over 100 games over the last 10 years, who can prove it.

I don’t know about you and your percentages, but I’ll take four chances instead of three anytime. Wouldn’t you love to see one of college football’s “big boys” try it? It would be such devilish fun.

royexum@aol.com


Roy Exum: So How Am I Really Doing?

I’ve gotten hundreds of jokes since Tuesday when I wrote about feeling a little puny lately and expressing my belief that laughter is the best medicine. After breaking some bones in my arm as I slept last week and having no idea there were already some other fractures, it looked pretty certain I had a case of “The Big C.” I’ve always felt that stands for “courage” but the medical ... (click for more)

Leave Lincoln Park Alone

I am saddened and disappointed that city officials are planning on placing a road through the former site of Lincoln Park.   Lincoln Park was a rare source of enjoyment and entertainment for African Americans, where families came together for relaxation and celebration.   The park was a preferred destination for African Americans throughout the local region and residents ... (click for more)

Dog Fighting Operation Uncovered On Talladega Avenue

TBI was executing a narcotics search warrant at 6302 Talladega Ave. in Chattanooga on Friday and uncovered a dog fighting operation. Officials said it consisted of numerous pit bills, a fight ring, a treadmill and blood-stained carpets and paneling. Mcckamey Animal Services personnel were processing the fight scene. The search warrant was being executed by the ... (click for more)

City May Move Forward On $47 Million Wilcox Tunnel Project

City officials may move forward on a $47 million project to upgrade the narrow Wilcox Tunnel through Missionary Ridge. The City Council on Tuesday is to consider a resolution to apply for a $25 million federal TIGER grant. The city would still have to come up with $21,825,000 through "local funds or grants." The city has already spent $175,000 on the project. Improving ... (click for more)

Baylor Romps To Third Straight State Softball Title

MURFREESBORO, Tenn - The Baylor Lady Red Raiders won their third straight state softball title here at Starplex No. 3, but it wasn't as close as the previous two. Collecting 16 hits in five innings, Baylor's offense exploded for a season-high 17 runs in a 17-1 verdict over the Pope John Paul II Lady Knights. Baylor had opened the day in a similar fashion with a 10-1 victory ... (click for more)

GPS Claims State Doubles Crown

MURFREESBORO - - Wearing all black under a blue sky, the GPS Bruisers team of Emma McCallie and Michelle Fleenor left their opponents feeling black and blue as they claimed a state doubles crown here Friday at Old Fort Park after winning three, straight-set matches at BlueCross Spring Fling XX. In the finals, the GPS duo edged Francie George-Gracie Donoghue (Harpeth Hall),6-4 ... (click for more)