It seems as though every couple of days we read that Iran has achieved a new milestone in the development of nuclear weapons. From all accounts, it won't be long before Iran has the capability to deliver a nuclear device to either a surrounding country or inter-continentally to the U.S.

While the U.S. government continues to protest and note that such behavior is unacceptable, these protests ring hollow to Iran, and do not have the potential to alter Iran's course. Additionally, the international community's reaction to the Iranian threat falls way short of producing the kind of pressure that could alter Iran's behavior.

As I see it, here are the realities of the Iranian situation:

First, Iran knows that we are "tied down" in two wars and that our military is stretched to the breaking point. The United States is in no position to mount a credible threat to Iran's continued nuclear and conventional force build-up. A simple series of military air strikes by the United States could be effective in crippling Iran's nuclear ambitions, but Iran would immediately retaliate by closing the Straights of Hormuz (where almost all Middle Eastern Oil must transit) with mining and scuttling operations. They would then aggressively foment increased insurgencies in both Iraq and Afghanistan, while engaging fleet forces on the seas. This would lead to an inevitable cry to attack Iran with land forces, something the United States simply cannot do (because of our current overloaded military commitments) and indeed should not do as I'll lay out below.

And by the way, if Israel launches a series of strikes (the effectiveness of which are far from certain), Iran will view the strikes as sponsored by the United States and almost surely respond as noted above. If Israel does strike, however, it is certain that all Iran's Arab neighbors will be compelled to support Iran in its "struggle" against Israel and the U.S.

In either strike scenario case, the U.S. will be left with a certain cutoff of Middle-Eastern oil with disastrous implications for our economy. In all this, do not expect any help from China, Russia, or our NATO allies, except for perhaps our long time friend, the Brits.

It is crucial to note that while an Iranian nuclear weapons capability is extremely destabilizing, a nuclear capable Iran is actually much more of a threat to her Persian Gulf neighbors than she is to the United States -- and her Gulf neighbors know it. Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Iran has aspired to dominate the Persian Gulf region and its oil resources, where well over half the world's oil reserves are located. Iran's most immediate target for submission is not the United States, but rather its Arab neighbors such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman. A nuclear capable Iran intends to suppress and intimidate oil rich and close proximity nations to achieve de-facto control of the world's petroleum market, and thus provide a way to "energy blackmail" the United States and other western countries. Iran intends to supplant Saudi Arabia as the leader of OPEC. Unless we take firm action (and with strike or no strike), the United States is likely to find itself subservient to Iran's dominance of the oil marketplace in the next ten to twenty years, with extraordinarily high oil prices crippling our economy. So, what to do?

Initially and as I have said before, it is crucial -- crucial -- that we immediately embark on an energy independent path that will wean us from dependency on Persian Gulf Oil. Otherwise our national security and our economic viability will be at great risk to the whims of a Jihadist Iran which intends to dominate the oil resources of the Middle East. We must shift from an oil based economy to a "home grown" electrical / natural gas based economy, relying primarily on a combination of nuclear produced electricity and natural gas to power our automobiles and trucks. Nuclear derived electricity and natural gas should be complemented with wind, solar, thermal, hydro-electric, ocean current, and hydrogen sources of energy, along with our own dwindling oil supplies and clean coal development.

To be sure, I was encouraged when the Obama administration announced this week that it would provide loan guarantees for two new nuclear reactors proposed for Burke, Georgia -- the first new reactor starts in nearly three decades in the United States. This is good news. Modern nuclear reactors are safe, reliable and produce an abundance of electricity -- electricity we desperately need to end our dependency on Middle East oil. Now it is essential that the licensing procedures for these two new plants be expedited. Many more must follow quickly. At the same time, anti-nuclear power pressure groups must be turned aside by those of us who love these United States.

Next, we have to convince moderate Persian Gulf countries (led by Saudi Arabia) that long before the U.S. bows to Iranian hegemony, the Arab Persian Gulf countries will for sure succumb to Iranian regional dominance. In the next ten years, these generally moderate Arab states have much more to lose than does the United States. We have to make it clear to Saudi Arabia and others in the Gulf Region that in order to survive they must lead the effort to confront Iran with both their economic and, as necessary, their military power. We can and should support with our air and sea forces, but they must lead with all their forces, particularly ground forces. They have to know that the United States will not take on Iran alone, while her Persian Gulf neighbors sit idly by and let us do their bidding. Forget it.

Also, we must finish the development and deployment of anti-missile defenses to protect us from any future Iranian nuclear missile threat. We have the right technology and reliable systems that can do this; we just need to put the capability in the field.

And last, we've got to clearly tell our European allies in no uncertain terms that we are not willing to lead the effort to subdue Iran. We need to tell them that we are pursuing an energy independence policy and that we are willing to walk away from the Iranian problem to take care of ourselves first. On the other hand, if they are serious partners then we would want them to participate in an alliance to militarily support moderate Middle Eastern countries in their effort to contain and defeat Iran as necessary.

In summary the United States has to do the following:

-- Move now on a Manhattan like project to achieve energy independence, with requisite implementing federal and private programs.

-- Convince Israel to stay out of a confrontation with Iran for now and refrain from striking them.

-- Field anti-missile defenses to protect our homeland from Iranian nuclear tipped missiles. Assist Israel in a similar effort as they request.

-- Offer an alliance mechanism to moderate Arab states. We should agree to support them in their confrontation with Iran with our air and sea power only, while they publically take the lead in contributing their own air and sea power, and land forces as necessary.

It will be vital that all these activities take place simultaneously and that they be publicized widely by the U.S., our European allies, and by moderate Arab States in the Persian Gulf region.

Iran is truly a rogue state run by dictators and religious fanatics. Overall, however, the people of Iran are peace loving, well educated centrists, and have a worldly view. Let's hope that they rise up and rid themselves of their own rogue regime. Meanwhile, the United States is left with no option other than to aggressively prepare ourselves for energy independence so that we will never again be subjected to petroleum blackmail.

General (Retired) B. B. Bell
bbbell12@yahoo.com