Roy Exum: Now Real Football Begins

  • Monday, September 21, 2015
  • Roy Exum
Roy Exum
Roy Exum

It has been said by people far smarter than me that college football starts in the fall. I am sure you think that is quite astute unless you grasp the truer meaning. The first day of fall is this Wednesday. Most of what happens in the late summer…when the colleges actually start to play…is only a prelude to what now starts after Tennessee has throttled Bowling Green by 29 points and Western Carolina by 45, Oregon has nailed Georgia State by 33, and Oklahoma St. has taken Texas-San Antonio by 55.

As Paul Newberry of the Associated Press writes, “It's downright embarrassing that Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, Tennessee-Martin, Western Carolina and Western Kentucky turn up not once, but twice on SEC schedules. Not to mention, there's a hodgepodge of directional patsies dotting pretty much every team's lineup, from Northwestern State to Southern University to Eastern Kentucky to Western Michigan.”

But now it begins to get real. As a longtime observer, I’ll admit I keep up with college football almost as much as I ever have. But, let’s face it, the month of September is mostly “fluff” until the beginning of fall brings games that matter.

This past weekend only whetted the purist appetite, with Ole Miss using the most insane luck to score the most improbable touchdown in a 43-37 upset over No. 2 Alabama. Unranked Stanford, already in critical condition after losing to lowly Northwestern, bolted back to life in a 41-31 thriller against No. 5 Southern Cal. And what about Ohio State hanging on by the hairs of the Buckeyes’ chinny-chin-chin with that ugly 20-13 save over Northern Illinois that should have been worse?

To start, I discount the theory Alabama is out of the national championship picture with the loss to Ole Miss. With five straight No. 1 recruiting classes, Nick Saban’s drive and ability, and a tremendous overall program, the Tide will be there at the end. Remember, the biggest sucker bet ever is to offer your friends the notion that no team in the SEC will go undefeated – hello? Both Alabama and Auburn, two Top 10 teams two weeks ago, just got flushed.  The SEC is a gauntlet and I agree with Stanford coach David Shaw, who moments after knocking down Southern Cal said, “There are no upsets in big-time college football.”

That said, in a fun sort of exercise based by what I have seen in the “summer” as we head into the first week of “fall,” let’s take a look at this week’s SEC games as I share my thoughts:

CENTRAL FLORIDA (0-3) AT SOUTH CAROLINA (1-2) , 12 Noon – Before you feel sorry for a struggling Steve Spurrier and his banged up USC bunch, consider the fact that when Furman beat Central Florida with a school-record 55-yard field goal, it was the first time since 1999 the Paladins have beaten an FBS team. If other words, sometimes the patsy wins. The Gamecocks, in desperate need of win No. 2, will use USF to get a quarterback more in tune with the offense and will use a lot of vanilla on offense to throw off the Missouri coaches for next week. After that you need to remember Carolina must play LSU and A&M before rolling into Knoxville Nov. 7 because that will be a key game for both teams at that point.

SOUTHERN (2-1) AT GEORGIA  (3-0), 12 Noon (SEC Network) – Obviously beating Carolina by 32 points is huge but not as big as transfer quarterback Greyson Lambert completing every one of his 25 passes for 330 yards and three TDS. (Okay, one was caught by the other team but 24-of-25 is still a new NCAA standard.) The better look at the Bulldogs will come the first three weeks of October against Alabama, Tennessee and Missouri. Nick Chubb is now one game shy of Herschel Walker’s number of 100-yard games and, if you want to win a bet, challenge someone that you believe he’ll do it this week.  By the way, Southern University is a traditionally-black school in Baton Rouge, La. It has approximately 5,000 undergraduate students.

LOUISIANA STATE (3-0) AT SYRACUSE (3-0), 12 Noon (ESPN) – The Orange had to rely on overtime and a fourth-team quarterback to beat Central Michigan while LSU was rolling out a Heisman Trophy candidate so don’t get Tigers and Oranges mixed up. I heard from a good source that before the Auburn game Les Miles was confiding that this may be the best team he’s had at LSU with so much talent in so many places. But how did Miss. State come within two points of LSU two weeks ago? Syracuse has been 3-0 since 1991. LSU was 3-0 this time last year, and the year before that, and the year before that. Please. I see LSU on cruise control until the Nov. 7 game at Alabama, but don’t forget Texas A&M on the Saturday after Thanksgiving. If ‘Bama beats LSU and then Auburn beats Alabama after beating the Aggies on Nov. 7, what’s there not to like about the SEC?

TENNESSEE (2-1) AT FLORIDA (3-0) , 3:30 p.m. (CBS)  – The most impressive thing about the Vols is I watched them ring up 17 unanswered points on Oklahoma. That proved to me these guys can play, regardless of not closing against the Sooners and making a packed house at Neyland Stadium believe they saw something wonderful in the Western Carolina rout. When Kentucky can outgain Florida in a 14-9 cliffhanger, Tennessee could easily terrorize those at Florida Field. Everything at UT hinges on potential injuries – everything – and if the Vols stay healthy I’m seriously thinking eight wins if the secondary can keep up. I believe Georgia and Alabama have better talent versus so many freshmen the Vols are playing, but both South Carolina and Missouri aren’t as impressive as first believed. UT has a wonderful opportunity right now.

LOUISIANA-MONROE (1-1) AT ALABAMA (2-1), 4:00 p.m. (SEC)  –With the Ole Miss debacle a huge dark cloud, the Tide will respond just like UT did after getting embarrassed by the Oklahoma finish. The bigger focus for Alabama’s success is obvious: the Crimson Tide’s -5 turnover margin on Saturday was its worst in nine seasons under Saban. That’s called sloppy, and is it any wonder Ole Miss scored 24 points off turnovers? Alabama plays at Georgia next week, but the telling game will be the road game against Texas A&M on Oct. 17. Hopefully a quarterback will emerge by then.

TEXAS A&M (3-0) VS. ARKANSAS (1-2) IN ARLINGTON, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN)  – The Razorbacks have just lost two home games to unranked, double-digit underdogs and, as Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury said Saturday night about loud-mouth Bret Bielema, “He just got his (butt) kicked two times in a row and probly will be by A&M as well.” A&M’s dazzling sophomore, Kyle Allen, is getting better and better. In the 44-27 win over Nevada, the quarterback threw 18-of-31 for 270 yards and four touchdowns. And think about this: In 2015 Texas A&M will actually leave the state of Texas only once in the first 11 weeks of the season (Oct. 24 at Ole Miss). Prior to its Nov. 21 visit to Vanderbilt, A&M will play seven home games and neutral-site games against Arizona State (in Houston) and Arkansas (in Arlington). Don’t tell me the “Twelfth Man” ain’t working.

VANDERBILT (1-2) AT OLE MISS (3-0), 7:00 P.M., (ESPNU) – Chad Kelly, the brash New Yorker who is the wizard of the hour at Ole Miss, has thrown for nine touchdowns against one interception, but his worth is that he believes he can do anything and likes to prove it. Some are saying Ole Miss is the chalk the rest of the way, but I’m one who believes if you’ve still got dates with Texas A&M, Auburn, LSU and Miss. State you better practice your dance steps every  day until you get to the ballroom. The talk around the campfire is that Kelly has some darling off the field as well, which scares Ole Miss coaches to death, so while the Rebs are delicious fun today, all the hay ain’t quite in the barn. Vanderbilt is tentative at best and, with the Middle Tennessee State game next week, there will be no joy in Mudville if the Blue Raiders prevail.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (2-1) AT AUBURN (2-1), 7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) – This is a real litmus test since Auburn, after allowing LSU runner Leonard Fournette an amazing 12 yards per carry, should indeed have lost 45-21. It speaks ill of Will Muschamp, now the defensive coordinator, but the truth is the Tigers have great talent and this is the biggest week for Gus Malzahn since he’s been at Auburn. State’s 49-point win over Northwestern State shows me nothing, but the fact they played claw-to-claw with LSU before losing 21-19 a couple of weeks ago sure does. So with Auburn under the microscope, MSU quarterback Dak Prescott, who sparked Saturday 647-yard, nine-TD day, could be looking at the most crucial game of his career and, this will be a great one to watch.

I INTERRUPT WITH A QUICK LESSON TO ALL:  Last Tuesday Auburn safety Rudy Ford said: "(Defending Leonard Fournette) shouldn't be difficult, that much, of a challenge." On Saturday, Fournette ran for a career-high 228 yards and three TDs on 19 carries and said after the game: "If you talk trash coming into our house, we have to defend our house. We all saw what he said and took it under consideration." MORAL: Never talk trash lest you be taken “under consideration.”

MISSOURI (3-0) AT KENTUCKY (2-1) , 7:30 p.m. – Yes, Missouri is undefeated but when you have to rely on special teams to eke out a 9-6 win over UConn after beating Arkansas State by 7 one week earlier, how the heck are these Tigers ranked? Missouri is hardly playing with the speed, power or finesse of a two-time SEC East King, but the scheduling gods have blessed the Tigers. In the next five games UM will play four of the lightest teams in the league -- the Cats, South Carolina, Florida and Vandy. The Tigers play Georgia Oct. 17, but despite dodging a UConn bullet, Mizzou could very easily be 6-0 and 3-0 in the East when they come to Athens.

Let the real games begin.

royexum@aol.com

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