by Roy Exum
posted September 4, 2008
 Roy Exum |
Following last Saturday’s 27-24 overtime loss to a never-quit UCLA, the Vols, falling completely out of the polls this week, will be idle Saturday before what is expected to be a “get-well card” against lightly-regarded Alabama-Birmingham at home on Sept. 13 (12:30 p.m., Raycom TV)
But then things get hairy quickly. No matter the UAB outcome, Tennessee will be a definite underdog against No. 5 Florida in Neyland Stadium Sept. 20 before traveling the next Saturday to a much-improved Auburn – this week ranked No. 9. After having witnessed a good number of UT-Florida brawls, the Auburn game just seven days later now looms as a huge test even though it isn’t in the SEC East.
Here’s why; Tennessee opens the month of October in Knoxville with a night game against Northern Illinois, another lightweight, but – only two weeks after Auburn and three after Florida - on Oct. 11 UT visits No. 2 Georgia, a team that will ironically be off on Oct. 4.
You see what I mean? While luck and injuries are the biggest factors after speed and skill, never forget that the schedule – which is made years in advance – still weighs considerably into the great scheme of things. For instance, Vol assistant coaches are elated Auburn must play No. 7 LSU the week before they take these Volunteers into Jordan-Hare Stadium, but, remember this, Florida will also be idle the Saturday before the high-octane Gators come calling in Knoxville.
Whoa, now I didn’t say UT was going to be 2-4 by Oct. 12, but if you look at the schedule, and I have seen the way these things sometimes play out, an off week is absolutely huge when somebody like Jonathan Compton, UT’s starting quarterback, suffers a concussion like he did in the fourth quarter on Monday night.
Tennessee is a very good football team – I believe that - but keep a beady eye on the SEC checkerboard in the next six weeks because the way things will play out makes it simply fascinating.
With that, here are my Top 10 Picks for this Saturday:
DUKE – Former Vol coordinator David Cutcliffe started with a bang last week, guiding the Devils past James Madison, 31-7, so getting six points against Northwestern is too tempting. Northwestern’s light has dimmed in the Big Ten and with this one in Durham, the Devils are used to rain after last week. This would be a giant step for the program so take the points. My Pick: Duke, 26-21.
GEORGIA TECH – The Yellow Jackets are a 7-point underdog to Boston College in an early ACC game and I’m a believer in new coach Paul Johnson. The BC bunch almost got into the Top 25, but the conference has fallen from favor as of late (Clemson was the pre-season pick and Alabama drilled ‘em). The Boston weather will accent Tech’s speed and a solid game plan could bring Tech home a winner. My pick? Ga. Tech, 24-21.
WEST VIRGINA – East Carolina can’t catch lightning in a bottle twice, even with Lou Holtz’ son, Skip, working wonders. ECU’s upset of Va. Tech was typical of an opening-day misfire but West Va. Is No. 8 in the AP poll and eight points isn’t enough. Look for speed to rule and UWV has the size to go with it. It is said a football team improves more between the first and second week than all the rest of the season. West Virginia toyed with Villanova last week, winning 48-21, so watch this. My Pick? West Va., 42-14.
AUBURN – The Tigers start six new faces against La.-Monroe, but the 34-0 outcome was as complete a whipping as has been seen since the Dye days. Fabulous balance between offense, defense and special teams will scald Southern Miss after all three units scored touchdowns last Saturday. The Golden Eagles cranked out 633 yards of offense in the 51-21 win over La.-Lafayette so remember that figure after USM faces def. coordinator Paul Rhodes' smothering defense Saturday. Head coach Tommy Tuberville has spent most of his time, however, with “spread” genius Tony Franklin because, after Miss. State next week, the season will be decided in the back-to-back games against LSU and Tennessee. My Pick? Auburn, 37-10.
ALABAMA – The Tide is picked by 30 over Tulane and, if the Green Wave thought Hurricane Gustuv was bad, they haven’t seen a show like Alabama will unleash Saturday night in the Bryant-Denny opener. Nick Saban made the Clemson thrashing look easy – the Tide defense holding the Tigers’ much-vaunted running tandem to a total of 20 yards in the 34-10 debacle. So if UA does that to the No. 9 team in the country, how bad can you taste the Tide covering the spread? It will be Saban’s 100th victory, too. My Pick? Alabama, 51-7.
OKLAHOMA – The Sooners are back, brother, after cruising to a 50-0 halftime lead against UTC so Cincinnati needs to bring an extra ambulance. OU is ranked No. 4 and in order for Bobby Stoopes to gain a better toe-hold in climbing back up the mountain, you can bet the Bearcats’ 21-points won’t hold up. The Sooners want – no, are demanding - OU return to BSC power and there ain’t but one way to show it. My Pick? Oklahoma, 48-14.
FLORIDA – The Gators, in my opinion, are one of the top three teams in the United States. The reason is there is an age-old saying: “If you don’t recruit speed, you are going to chase it.” Miami, once mighty and decidedly devilish, has gotten bland and all that South Florida speed has ended up guess where? Add Urban Meyer’s genius against UM’s struggling Randy Shannon and you are fixing to see a school lesson that is far greater than the 21 points the bookies allow. The Gators have Heisman winner Tim Tebow at quarterback while Miami is starting a true freshman named Jacory Harris. You do the math. My Pick: Florida, 41-17.
GEORGIA – So you say the Bulldogs were less than spectacular last week and while you are still seething over those 21 points they gave up to Georgia Southern, the 45 the Bulldogs scored weren’t too shabby. The best thing about the opener was that it took the No. 1 stigma away, Georgia falling to No. 2 behind Southern Cal. So how do you honestly think a team like Central Michigan stands a prayer going into Athens? Really. Oh, Georgia will be favored by 24 come kickoff, but don’t fret at the halftime score because the heat and the speed and the crowd will whip into such a fine froth late nobody will need wine with their dinner afterwards. My Pick? Georgia, 56-10.
OLE MISS – I thought Memphis would pop the Rebs last week, but Houston Nutt had Ole Miss smoking with a 41-24 tally over the Tigers so now I think Wake Forest is in for a long day. The Deacons are favored by 8, but with Rebel quarterback Jevan Snead showing good arm for a sophomore, this is a case where you want your doctor to be from Wake but your skill people to come from Oxford. Reb Jamarca Sanford is a Goliath on defense so, yes, I figure this is one Ole Miss can steal if Snead’s aim holds true.
TEXAS – The Longhorns, moving up one spot to No. 10 in the polls this week, are getting ready to run completely crazy Saturday in a rare road trip to El Paso. It's bad enough No. 12 Texas Tech has stolen some of UT’s thunder but in the land of big buckles and pointed boots, you can bet the ranch the Longhorns are intent on playing the role of the sheriff against lightly-regarded UTEP. Texas crushed Florida Atlantic a week ago, 52-10, and new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp was incensed over those 10. Now comes a pretender in UTEP and Texas players may come out not only wearing spurs, they may use them! My Pick: Texas 56-3.
ONE MORE – UT-Chattanooga is still hurting on its chin after the Oklahoma whipping, but college kids rebound quickly and the season opener Saturday night against Cumberland should lend some salve. Cumberland, you’ll recall, entered college football land of mythical proportion when the team lost to Georgia Tech, something like 220-to-0 back when they wore leather helmets. Oh, this won’t tell us how good UTC actually is, but will give the players some spring in their step. My Pick? UTC, 34-7.
royexum@aol.com
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