by Suzanne Walker
posted September 20, 2005
President and CEO of the Community Research Council (CRC) David Eichenthal told the Kiwanis Club Tuesday that the council is using statistical analysis, data, and research to discover helpful information about the growth of Chattanooga that will be used as a resource for the government, media, and especially the public.
He said next June the organization hopes to publish a "state of Chattanooga region report" for the community.
In studying Chattanooga, Mr. Eichenthal said much research has been done on the growth of other mid size cities in America, similar to Chattanooga. He said mid size cities are important because about 29 million American citizens live in this type of city rather than larger cities. Categorized mid size cities have a population of 100,000 to 300,000.
Since 1940, Chattanooga's population has gone from 128,000 to 155,000, he said. However, this is largely due to the increase in land, he said.
He said, when studying the growth of mid size cities, there are several factors to be considered. The first is whether a mid size city "is merely in the way of growth of a larger city." He said "urban sprawl" can attribute to population growth. He said Chattanooga's growth cannot be attributed to this factor because the city is as close as it will ever be to larger cities like Atlanta, unless highly technological transportation is implemented.
Secondly, the recent increase in the Latino population must be taken into account. He said in Chattanooga the Latino population tripled from 1990 to 2000. Since 2000, the Latino population has continued increasing at a "rapid pace." However, Mr. Eichenthal said much more data and research will be used to find out more about this factor.
College education is the third factor, he said. In 37 of the mid size cities where population growth exceeded the national average for midsize cities of 15%, the percentage of the population in those cities with a college degree was higher than the national average. In some fast growing mid size cities, as much as 55 percent of the people in these cities have college degrees. However, in 2000, he noted, Chattanooga had less than the national average of people with college degrees. Mr. Eichenthal said the CRC is studying what attracts larger populations of college graduates to particular cities and how this can be increased within Chattanooga.
The last factor in growth is geographical expansion. He said in the next few years parts of Hamilton County may be annexed, adding an increase in population.
Mr. Eichenthal said the CRC plans to do more data analysis and research to understand growth better. He said the council will study issues such as the "cost and benefits of annexation and consolidation," and the affects of education on the population. Furthermore, he said the council will examine the impact "the waterfront will have in attracting more people."
Here is Mr. Eichenthal's speech:
Thank you to the Kiwanis Club for the invitation and opportunity to speak with you today.
When Chris first invited me to speak today, he asked that I talk about the role that the Community Research Council can play in Chattanooga.
Instead, with the regular season coming to an end, I thought it might be a better idea to talk about baseball.
In particular, I wanted to talk to you about the Oakland As. With 12 games to go, it appears that the As will fall short in the wild card race in the American League. But if they win just seven out of their last 12 games, the As will reach 90 victories for the sixth consecutive year.
Well, Braves fans and Yankee fans alike might scoff at that record – after all, the As have no world series or League championship rings to show for their results. But neither the Yankees nor the Braves have won 90 games for the last six years in a row.
The As’ results are all the more impressive because they have been achieved with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball. The As’ total payroll for 2005 is $55 million -- $30 million less than the Braves and less than one third of the total payroll of the New York Yankees.
How have they done it? The As’ success was chronicled in Michael Lewis’ 2003 book Moneyball. In it, Lewis talks about how the As management defied conventional wisdom by looking beyond scouting reports and relying, instead, on statistical analysis to make player personnel decisions. Analysis suggested that pitchers with college degrees almost always outperformed high school phenoms; that on base percentage was a far greater predictor of success than home runs; and that pitchers who were capable of getting hitters to hit into ground outs were generally far more successful than strikeout kings.
In other words, the As were able to succeed despite their financial disadvantage by relying on data analysis, not just intuition.
My goal as President and CEO of the Community Research Council is to take the ethos of Moneyball and apply it here in Chattanooga.
Simply put, the Community Research Council’s goal is to become the premiere source of independent data and policy research and analysis in our region. We hope to become a resource for government, foundations, non-profits, the press and – ultimately – our residents.
We are already engaged in a project, funded by a grant from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, to assess citizen perspectives on the performance of local government.
Next June, CRC will publish the first State of Chattanooga Region Report providing detailed data on more than 70 separate indicators broken down both geographically and demographically.
In the next week, we will announce a new project – and a new grant from a prominent national foundation – in support of research designed to measure the health and economic impact of the recent changes in TennCare.
Through data analysis and policy research, I believe we can bring great value to the debate over public policy issues here in Chattanooga …and to the larger debate over urban policy issues nationally. Because what happens in Chattanooga is relevant beyond our borders.
According to the 2000 Census, 22.9 million people lived in the 9 cities with a population of greater than one million; 24.3 million people lived in the 49 cities with a population of between 300,000 and 1,000,000; but 28.8 million people lived in the 185 cities with a population of between 100,000 and 300,000. More urban residents live in places like Chattanooga than in larger cities. And there are way more cities like Chattanooga than places like New York and Chicago or Minneapolis and San Francisco.
One of the critical issues that the CRC has started to look at is what makes midsize cities – cities like chattanooga -- grow.
In the last sixty years, Chattanooga’s population has grown from approximately 128,000 residents in 1940 to the 155,000 residents in 2000.
But the historic growth in Chattanooga’s population has been artificial -- because the Chattanooga of today is geographically different than it was sixty years ago. In 1940, Chattanooga extended across just 27 square miles. Today, Chattanooga spreads across more than 143 square miles – making it geographically larger than Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, Boston and Baltimore. In fact, in size, my hometown of Brooklyn, New York – with more than 2 million residents – is one-third smaller than Chattanooga.
Between 1990 and 2000, Chattanooga’s population grew by just 2% -- compared to 9.8% for all U.S. cities of 100,000 or more and 14.7% for all mid size cities.
Some easy math tells us that if the original geographic area of Chattanooga returned to the same population that it had in 1940 and the rest of the current city had the same level of population density as the city as a whole today, Chattanooga’s population would increase to more than 260,000 and would be one of the nation’s 70 largest cities – as it was in 1940.
So, what makes midsize cities – and what could make Chattanooga – grow?
At CRC, we decided to focus on those 75 mid-size cities that beat the average – in other words, those cities that grew at a rate greater than 15% between 1990 and 2000. And, we decided to look at the role that four factors may have played in explaining their rate of growth.
First, we wanted to determine whether some mid-size cities grew because they were merely in the way of regional growth driven by other larger cities. In fact, 45 of the 75 fast growing mid-size cities were “in the way” of urban sprawl as a result of being within 50 miles of the center of one of the nation’s 25 largest metropolitan areas. So, for example, three of the fastest growing mid-size cities --- Gilbert, Peoria and Chandler, Arizona – were all growing because of their proximity to Phoenix.
Second, we wanted to examine the impact of the growing Latino population on mid-size cities. Again, in 45 out of the 75 fast growing mid-size cities, the Latino population exceeded the national Latino population of 12.5%. Laredo and Brownsville, Texas and Hialeah, Florida were among the fastest growing mid-size cities in the United States, each with a Latino population of more than 90%.
Third, we tested the impact of college educated residents on population growth. In just under half – 37 – of the fastest growing mid-size cities, the percentage of population over 25 with a college degree exceeded the national rate of 24.4%. In most, these cities were in the nation’s 25 largest metropolitan areas. These mid size cities were more like upper income suburbs “in the way” of larger cities. In cities like Naperville, Illinois, Plano, Texas and Irvine, California, over 55% of adult residents had a college degree – more than double the national average.
Finally, in 15 out of 75 fast growing cities, population growth was driven by geographic expansion. In these cities, the percentage of land area growth exceeded population growth. Annexation or consolidation produced a somewhat artificial growth in population. For example, Vancouver, Washington’s population tripled – but so did its land area.
What does all of this mean for the prospect of population growth here in Chattanooga and, potentially, for other slow to grow midsize cities?
Let me start with geographic expansion – or what some people might regard as “cheating.” As I mentioned, this is precisely how Chattanooga has grown and maintained its population over the last forty years. And, there are opportunities to continue this trend in the coming years as well
Under the Urban Growth Boundary Plan, Chattanooga will again be able to annex significant parts of unincorporated Hamilton County next year. This could add thousands of new residents to the city. In addition, the population of Chattanooga could grow if the City and County were ever to combine into a Metro Chattanooga – much as Louisville, Kentucky recently did.
While Chattanooga can grow its way to growth through new annexation, it cannot move physically closer to Atlanta. But the importance of proximity is clearly part of the impetus for improving transportation connections between the two cities. While the cost and time to build a high speed rail connection between the two cities may be hurdles that are difficult to overcome, lesser technology and lower cost alternatives may be more practical.
There is already exponential growth in Chattanooga’s Latino community. Even the Census – which notoriously undercounts the Latino population – reflected a tripling of Latinos in Chattanooga between 1990 and 2000. And, by the way, the Census undercount of Latinos may be reason to examine the recent estimates of a loss of population in the city with a skeptical eye.
The increase in the Latino population accounted for more than 75% of the overall increase in population in Chattanooga between 1990 and 2000. Every indicator that we know of suggests that the increase is continuing and continuing at a rapid pace. Since 2001, the number of Latino children in Hamilton County schools nearly doubled. EEO data suggests an increase in employed Latinos in the region of 75%, between just 1999 and 2003. Between 2001 and 2003, births to Latino mothers in Hamilton County increased by 8% as births to African American mothers declined. There is no question in my mind that we are on track for Latinos to make up anywhere between ten and fifteen percent of Chattanooga’s population by the next Census.
I wanted to conclude by talking about the implications of our research on the role of educational attainment on population growth. To me, it poses a series of important and interesting questions.
In 2000, 21.5% of all Chattanoogans 25 or older had a college degree, compared to 24.4% nationally. Out of the 75 fastest growing mid size cities, there were ten cities where educational attainment was the only factor present.
If Chattanooga has already grown through geographic expansion, is already growing through Latino immigration and is constrained in its ability to physically move closer to Atlanta, it would seem that growing through increasing human capital would be a pretty important strategy for the city’s future.
How do cities grow human capital? There are two ways – by growing college graduates and keeping them and by importing college graduates that others have grown.
We have some reason to believe that attracting college graduates is already having an impact in Chattanooga. A recent survey conducted by CRC suggests that individuals who had lived in Chattanooga ten years or less were almost fifty percent more likely to have a college degree than those who had lived in the city for twenty years or more.
If that’s the case, how do we attract more college educated residents?
There is clearly a chicken and egg question here. For example, in Boise, Idaho – where the population grew by almost 50% in a decade -- did a high concentration of college educated workers cause Micron to locate its technology headquarters there or did the business attract the college educated workers?
One important factor might be the presence of a large college or university as a magnet. In eight out of the ten mid size cities we identified, there was a college or university with more than 10,000 students. In some cases, they were large private universities – Duke in Durham and Brigham Young in Provo – but in most cases, they were large campuses of public universities.
The importance of educational attainment also begs the question about the role of public schools. In theory, quality public schools offer an important means of home-growing college graduates. They may also be a factor in individuals – or firms reliant on highly educated workers – in deciding to locate or relocate.
It is difficult to measure the quality of public schools across jurisdictions and across states. Different systems have different definitions of graduation rate and apply different standards in determining graduation eligibility. But one measure that we can and did look at it is the overall importance of public schools in different cities. We found that in all but one of the ten cities, the percentage of children attending public vs. private school exceeded the percentage in Chattanooga.
As important and relevant as these initial findings are, I think they tell us even more about what we don’t know.
We don’t know enough about the growing Latino population and the economic, political, social and other implications for Chattanooga.
We don’t know enough about the cost and benefits of further geographic expansion of the city through annexation or consolidation.
We don’t know whether – through efforts like the waterfront development and the outdoor initiative – we are starting to attract those 25 to 34 year old college graduates who appear most on the move.
And, perhaps most importantly, we don’t fully understand exactly what happened in those ten cities where educational attainment appears to be the key to population growth – especially with regard to the role of their public schools.
Over the coming months and years, answering these questions – through data analysis and research -- will help to form the research agenda for the Community Research Council. I hope that our answers can help to shape the future of Chattanooga and allow our region’s policymakers to act on data and research, not just intuition --- in other words, to allow them to apply the very principles that have kept the As in contention to keep our city and region in contention in the 21st Century.
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