by Stuart F. James
posted November 5, 2006
On the Sunday before the mayoral election, the headline of the Chattanooga Times Free Press told the voters of this community Ann Coulter would win the election against Mayor Ron Littlefield. Four years ago the Chattanooga Times Free Press published articles showing Van Hilleary ahead of Governor Bredesen by four percentage points. Both “predictions” were based upon a Mason Dixon poll conducted for the Chattanooga Times Free Press. Both times the voters showed us the Mason Dixon poll was wrong.
Once again, despite these two glaring errors, the Chattanooga Times Free Press aka the Chattanooga Times Corker Press is publishing a poll conducted by Mason Dixon. Once again the voters will prove Mason Dixon wrong.
This poll raises serious questions about objective reporting and accurate poll results. With the recent history of Mason Dixon calling it wrong, voters must ask the Chattanooga Times Free Press: why does this paper continue to use a public polling company that has a past history of being wrong. The continued use of Mason Dixon is irresponsible particularly when Mason Dixon was wrong in the last two major elections.
The judgment of the Times Free Press must also called into question because this poll does not take into account early voting, nor does the poll measure the impact of early voting on the election. Neither the Times Free Press nor Mason Dixon conducted exit polls during early vote. Therefore, the publication of this poll is questionable, and the use of Mason Dixon is more questionable. Responsible reporting requires comprehensive fact gathering, comprehensive fact gathering requires a measure of the impact of early vote on this election. The Chattanooga Times Free Press did not report on the impact of early vote; The Chattanooga Times Free Press failed to objectively investigate all aspects of this election and the polling in this election; particularly the impact of early vote. We need solid investigative, factual reporting in this election.
We must question the press, we must question the accuracy of their stories, we must question why the press will publish poll results, particularly if the polling company has a recent history of being wrong.
The news media questions our elected leaders, the news media questions the public, the news media must report the news fairly and impartially. As the banner of the Chattanooga Times Free Press reads it is the paper’s duty to “Give the news impartially, without fear or favor.”
It is time for us to question the news media, to question its actions, and to ask the owners, editors and reporters of our news outlets the tough questions they like to ask. Our open and free society demands that we, as the public, question those who report the news, particularly when the news media relies on pollsters who have, or are developing, a history of getting it wrong.
Here are some issues about the polling in this Senate race:
If Bob Corker has a 12-point lead, why did he put $2 million of his own money in the campaign? Bob Corker’s personal funding of his own race show the voters of this state he is either losing this race or the race is so close he is desperately infusing large amounts of money to obtain a lead. If Mr. Corker had this lead he would not spend $2 million of his personal wealth to win this election.
If the Mason Dixon poll is right, then how could Harold Ford Jr raise over $1 million in 48 hours? People do not give this kind of money to a candidate who is losing a Senate race. Mr. Ford’s fundraising shows he is leading this race, and that Mr. Ford has a clear shot at being our next senator.
If the Mason Dixon poll is right, then where is the early vote factor in the poll? In Hamilton County Tennessee over 40,111 voters went to the polls early. According to Brook Thompson, the Tennessee Election Administrator, the state set records in voting. The Mason Dixon/Free Press poll does not measure the early vote, nor did Mason Dixon conduct exit polls during early vote. This is a major flaw in this poll particularly in light of the large numbers voting early in the State.
Did the Mason Dixon poll use voter lists and histories to find out who is likely to vote, or did Mason Dixon randomly call households? Unless you use these voter lists or voter histories, you cannot accurately determine who is a likely voter in this election.
National reporters who are aware of the internal polling of both parties and campaigns rate this race as a tossup. Just this week, Stu Rothernberg of the Rothenberg Report, Chris Cilizza and Dan Balz of the Washington Post, and Charlie Cook of the National Journal all agree the race is a tossup and too close to call heading into the final week.
As this morning’s article reads, two earlier Mason Dixon poll showed the race a dead heat, demonstrating the flawed methodology of the poll published this morning. The Chattanooga Times Free Press did not give an analysis of how the change occurred, nor did the Mason Dixon poll explain how the change occurred. Why didn’t the Chattanooga Times Free Press and the Mason Dixon pollsters conduct a poll of early voters? Wouldn’t an early voter poll be an accurate predictor of who is winning the race? What about exit polling of early voters?
The Chattanooga Times Free Press, aka The Chattanooga Times Corker Press, continues to use Mason Dixon, a polling company having a history of getting it wrong. After the last Mason Dixon poll predicting the Coulter win over Mayor Ron Littlefield, voters should ask themselves why the Times Free Press used the same polling company to give us the same flawed results in the Senate race this year. Voters must question the poll and the actions of the Times Free Press.
It is time for us to get mad, telling the Chattanooga Times Free Press we are mad as heck and we are not going to take it any more. It is time for us to demand the Chattanooga Times Free Press “To Give the News Impartially, Without Fear or Favor.”
Stuart James
Chair, The New Hamilton County Democratic Party
sfj@gcjpc.com
* * *
Will Stuart James tell us which poll the Chattanooga Times Free Press should use or should they even use a poll?
I would ask the "Chair" if the Times Fress Press polling was only incorrect in regards to the Coulter-Littlefield and Hillary-Bresden races. Two out of hundreds wouldn't be too bad.
Then there is the Reuters poll which had Corker ahead by 10 percentage points and I believe another poll had Corker ahead also.
Aw, what the heck, Tuesday night will be here before this poll argument as to which one is correct, and which one is wrong can be settled. The voters will have made the decision and we will have no choice but to accept it.
Ron Henderson
Ooltewah
hendersonappraisal@comcast.net
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In the political environment of today too often voters have their opinions influenced by polls. Whereas I may not agree totally with the synopsis put forth by Stuart James in regard to the Corker-Ford poll he does raise some valid points that readers should consider. There is a real need in our country to revisit the use, and often misuse of polls.
As someone who is fairly technological, I almost exclusively use my cellphone when not at work and use my land line only for kids. In addition, I am on the do not call lists. So pollsters do not contact me on elections or issues, and truthfully I prefer it that way. I am sure I am not alone in that sentiment. You better believe that I will exercise my right to vote on Tuesday.
I also notice many polls are frequently wrong, yet continue to be used by papers. An unbiased organization would perform a great service by conducting research to measure accuracy of companies that conduct polls.
Like Mr. James, I put little faith in people that stick their finger to the
wind. I am afraid some polls actually discourage voting. So, who will win on Tuesday? The candidate and political party that gets it vote out. No matter if the polls places your candidate ahead or behind, do not let that often faulty guesswork influence your decision to vote or not vote. Make it a priority to cast your vote and choose the best candidate to reflect your views on Tuesday. Remember pollsters are not always right and the only correct poll and the one that matters is the one that is taken of people who vote in the election on Tuesday.
JC Bowman
flapolicy@hotmail.com
* * *
Stuart James' ranted against Opinion Research's polling of the Corker-Ford race last week in this section about Opinion Research's poll, and he is now ranting again about Mason-Dixon. I responded to his original piece, and feel compelled to write on this as well.
Tomorrow's election results are the only ones that count, so what will his excuse be if his candidate, Congressman Ford, loses? This is a toss-up race, but what the Mason-Dixon poll indicated to me is that there is still a good deal of undecided voters out there and they've apparently defected from Ford. Plus, don't forget the margin of error - polling is not an exact science.
I recall the 2002 governor's race as being very close as well. When the dates of the survey, the last minute surge of anti-road building ads aired by a surging Bredesen in Knox County, and the margin of error are all factored in, that poll didn't look too shabby at all.
I don't remember the exact numbers of the most recent mayoral race in Chattanooga and the associated polling, it makes sense that it is harder to get a read on local races - especially when the city's population is around 160,000 and voter turnout was low.
Hopefully, Mr. James can accept that his candidates are not always going to prevail. But one thing sticks out in my mind about what he didn't say. Where is his indignation about Mason-Dixon's polling results on this year's governor's race? You can't have it both ways.
Chip Wheeler
hixsoncats@hotmail.com
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If you read the fine print of this most recent Mason-Dixon Poll for the Tennessee Senate race you will note that of the 625 total people surveyed only 70 of them reside in West Tennessee, which is of course Congressman Ford's natural base of support. How in the world can a poll be considered accurate when almost 90% of the people interviewed either live in what's considered a Republican area of the state or at the very least Republican-leaning? One can only conclude that it appears this latest poll was skewered to favor Mr. Corker and to give him the appearance of momentum going into the home stretch of the campaign.
My gut tells me that people are hungry for change. That is evidenced by the record number of people voting early across the entire state. A 50% increase in turnout is amazing and is indicative of thousands of people wanting a new direction for our country.
Don't be fooled by these inaccurate polls. Harold Ford Jr. is on the cusp of victory and can achieve that if we do our part and vote. Please vote Tuesday for Harold Ford Jr. for U. S. Senate.
Harry Smithfield
Harrison
smithfieldharry@yahoo.com
* * *
I had the chance to read Mr. Stuart James' article on newspaper
reporting of polls and "anticipated results" and want to comment that it
is an eloquent summary of a problem that exists not merely in our sister
state of Tennessee but also in my home state of Florida.
I applaud Mr. James for his concise analysis and statement of the problem. The Ford/Corker race is even drawing attention down here and is one of the races that could very well shift the center of power in Washington. We need fair and accurate reporting from the press - not "hidden agendas" or bias dressed up in news reports.
David R. Lenox
Orlando, Fla.
david.lenox@gmlaw.com
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