The Van Hilleary for Senate campaign says scientific polling completed this week shows that Hilleary holds an 18-point lead over Ed Bryant and a 29-point lead over Bob Corker.
Hilleary officials said, "Hilleary's current lead mirrors the strong advantage he held in polling done last winter - with the only differences coming inside the margin of error of /- 5% for the survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters conducted Sunday and Monday, Aug. 14-15. In February polling before Hilleary became an official candidate, he led with 31%, compared with 18% for Bryant and 8% for Corker. Today, Hilleary stands at 33%, Bryant at 15% and Corker at 4%.
"There has been no measurable movement in this race, which is not surprising considering none of the candidates have engaged in sustained advertising," said Wes Anderson of OnMessage Inc., the pollster whose 2002 statewide primary surveys proved to be more accurate than any other publicly-released data.
"Van Hilleary is one of the most well-liked figures in Tennessee among Republicans, conservatives and independents and he begins this Senate primary in a very strong position," Anderson said. "Bob Corker and Ed Bryant will both need to spend a great deal of money to even hope to get where Congressman Hilleary already is.
"Hilleary's primary victory in 2002, in which he carried 93 of the state's 95 counties and built a statewide grassroots network, gives him a strong head start against Bryant and Corker, who both lost their previous statewide primary campaigns. That head start shows up in the geographic reach of the three candidates.
"Van Hilleary's popularity extends statewide, while Ed Bryant's support is concentrated in West Tennessee and Bob Corker's is centered in the Chattanooga media market," Anderson said.
In Bryant's statewide primary loss, he carried 23 counties, all south and west of Nashville. In Corker's statewide primary loss, he carried 17 counties, all but one in the Southeast quadrant of the state, Hilleary officials said.
They said Hilleary now leads in East Tennessee with 35%, bettering Bryant's 6% there. Hilleary leads in Middle Tennessee with 45%, bettering Bryant's 10%. Bryant strongly leads in the Grand Division with the smallest primary vote, West Tennessee, with 42%, bettering Hilleary's 11%. Corker is in third place with single digits in all three Grand Divisions, it was stated.
Hilleary officials said, "The latest survey indicates further clouds on the horizon for Bob Corker, who has come under fire for his shifting position on abortion and his record of pushing a tax increase as mayor and refusing to oppose the state income tax."
Without mentioning any candidate's name, the survey asked respondents: "How important would you say it is that Tennessee's next Republican Senator have a track record that proves he can be counted on to oppose higher taxes?" Eighty-nine percent of those surveyed said that quality is important, with nearly two-thirds saying it is "very important."
Tennessee's likely Republican primary voters expressed similar views on the importance of a candidate's record on abortion. When asked "How important would you say it is that Tennessee's next Republican Senator have a consistent record supporting the pro-life position on abortion?," seventy-four percent said that quality is important, with 50% rating it "very important."
Both issue questions were asked late in the survey, after respondents had already been asked the Senate race ballot question mentioned above.
Survey researcher Anderson said those two questions give a clear picture of the mindset of Tennessee's primary electorate. "I've been polling in Tennessee for seven years and the state's Republican and independent voters are steadfastly conservative on taxes and the pro-life issue," Anderson said. "They have little appetite for candidates whose records on abortion and taxes are anything but solidly conservative."
A Hilleary campaign spokesperson, Jennifer Coxe, said those two questions on abortion and taxes "point toward serious problems for Corker and boost conservative candidates Hilleary and Bryant.
"Bob Corker's record on abortion and taxes is out of step with the overwhelming majority of Tennessee's conservative Republican primary voters. He starts out in deep third place and the only way for him to move up is to run away from his record and pretend he is something he's not."