Roy Exum: We ‘Bout To Burst

  • Tuesday, April 21, 2020
Roy Exum
Roy Exum

I’m telling you what I am telling you, which in Southern-speak means what follows is the truth: The United States of America is fixing to burst, which north of Tennessee means in semi-Southern “just ’bout to pop.”

Read this note of stress from a friend who loves her husband very much: “I’m ready for the Sports Barn to open back up so he can shower there every morning! He gets all my shower stuff all wet and messed up! I’m tired of it!”

As protests grow across The Land of the Free for our country to “get back to living” – we’ve suffered darn near enough – yet all of the top infectious disease experts tell us it is still too early to lift the quarantine. Hello. Next Monday, in Washington state, Boeing announced its 27,000 workers will start anew after this weekend. Forget the experts and the rising coronavirus … the American people are unable to abide strict measures any longer.

The economists seem to be divided, some siding with our nation’s newest hero, White House infectious expert Anthony Fauci, while well-educated others say “there is no expert, COVID-19 is a novel virus, ‘novel’ means new, everything is an experiment.” This we do know: the nation’s economy has never been as frail. Oil just collapsed to “zero” per barrel because the nation hasn’t been using gasoline and there is nowhere to store the oil, just like farms are pouring out gallons of milk, a big reason is because schools are closed.

In short, the economy needs to ramp back up and the latest view the “back to work right now” crowd comes from the State of Tennessee’s Department of Health: The TDOH offers that while there have been 7,238 cases of the coronavirus reported in Tennessee, this on Monday, only 730 (13 percent) required hospitalization. The facts show that 3,575 (48 percent) have now been certified as “recovered,” and the 152 who have died from the virus represents only two percent of the reported cases. In 95 percent of the deceased there were serious underlying health issues. Further, new documentation from the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention shows as many as 25 percent of those infected never showed symptoms – and, in most cases – unaware they were infected, and Pentagon sources say “silent infections” may be as high as 60-70 percent in the military.

* * *

GEORGIA IS WAITING NO LONGER

This from the Atlanta Journal Constitution at 5 p.m. on Monday: “Governor Brian Kemp outlined plans Monday to allow some businesses shuttered amid the coronavirus pandemic to reopen by the end of the week, as he starts to ease restrictions that have ravaged the state’s economy to stem the spread of the disease. The governor’s order will allow gyms, bowling alleys, salons and some other indoor facilities closed under his shelter in place order to resume operations by Friday as long as they comply with social distancing requirements and meet other safety standards."

““These are tough moments in our state and our nation. I hear the concerns of those that I’m honored to serve,” said Governor Kemp, who said Georgia’s drastic measures helped ease the pressure on the state’s healthcare network. The shelter in place, which is in effect through April 30, remains in place. He urged the “medically fragile” to remain at home through May 13.

Governor Kemp said more hospitals would soon be able to resume elective surgeries. And he said Georgia would engage in a broader partnership with the higher education system to “double down” on increasing the state’s testing capacity. The Georgia National Guard will also dispatch 10 new strike teams to help administer testing. Governor Kemp urged Georgians to download a free app this week from Augusta University to screen for the disease. And the governor, who has wrestled with the idea of banning in-person religious services, said religious leaders can resume them if they adhere to the state’s safety policies.

* * *

SOUTH CAROLINA STORES CAN RE-OPEN TODAY

This from the Columbia, S.C, newspaper, The State, at 5 p.m. Monday: “South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster on Monday reversed restrictions on some businesses he ordered roughly two weeks ago allowing some retail shopping to reopen as state public health officials continue to fight the novel virus that has so far claimed more than 100 lives in the state. Under the governor’s new order, department stores can reopen, along with other retail businesses deemed “nonessential” such as sporting goods stores, book, music, shoe and craft stores, jewelry stores, floral shops and other luggage and leather goods stores.

“Stores, however, still must abide by previous mandates that limit occupancy to five customers per 1,000 square feet, or 20 percent of posted occupancy limits. Beaches and waterway access will now be decided by county officials. Governor McMaster’s order does not include barbershops, salons or gyms, all which involve close contact. And it does not lift restrictions on inside dining or the governor’s stay-at-home executive order that asks South Carolinians to work remotely if at all possible.

“Our measured, deliberate approach has been the right one we believe,” Governor McMaster said Monday. “Our goal was to cause the most damage possible to the virus, while doing the least possible damage ... to our businesses. South Carolina’s business is business.”

“The state is projected to hit more than 6,000 cases by May. Yet despite that, there has been a growing effort on the ground and nationally to begin opening up states’ economy in phases and South Carolina is no exception. Last week, Governor McMaster told reporters he would like the state’s economy “to be humming” by the end of June. And the state’s commerce secretary Bobby Hitt said some of the manufacturing companies could restart production by May.”

* * *
TENNESSEE MOVES QUICKLY

This from the Nashville Tennessean on Monday at 5:30 p.m.: “Governor Bill Lee announced Monday that his stay-at-home order will not be extended past April 30, and that some businesses around the state will begin reopening next week. 'For the good of our state, social distancing must continue, but our economic shutdown cannot,' Governor Lee said at his Monday afternoon briefing. A governor-appointed, 30-member economic recovery group is working with industry leaders to ensure that some businesses can reopen as early as Monday, April 27.

“But the green light to quickly reopen businesses doesn't necessarily extend to Tennessee's largest cities, where local authorities must still determine when restrictions can be eased. Governor Lee's office said it will work with Shelby, Madison, Davidson, Hamilton, Knox and Sullivan counties — all of which operate their own health departments, unlike the other 89 counties with state-run county health agencies — as they plan their own re-open strategies.

“It's unclear when Tennessee's major cities plan to lift their own local restrictions on business and activity. 'We plan to keep the same social distancing guidelines in place even beyond and into the next few weeks,' Governor Lee said when asked about whether large gatherings will be allowed to resume around the state. His announcement came as governors in Georgia and South Carolina on Monday afternoon also announced they were repealing closure orders on some businesses in the state. Governor Lee on Saturday took part in a call with governors from those states, along with the Republican governors of Florida, Alabama and Mississippi.

“Lee said his office has not yet determined what types of businesses will be targeted to reopen first next week. As for what type of action Governor Lee plans to take if there is a new surge in coronavirus cases once the state resumes its normal activity, the governor said the state will work with local health departments 'to make adjustments needed in that region.' The most important thing to me is that people can get back to work and businesses can begin to reopen," Governor Lee said. "The economic difficulty that’s been created by this, it has been devastating to our state, and the sooner we can begin to change that picture, the better."

Governor Lee also announced that state parks would reopen on Friday.

* * *
HOW ABOUT THE OTHER STATES? (MAY 1st IS 11 DAYS AWAY)

NOTE: This is from ‘The Hill’ website ( https://thehill.com ) on Monday at 6:40 p.m. “Governors are beginning to announce timelines for relaxing strict measures taken to mitigate the coronavirus. Many states are dropping stay-at-home orders beginning May 1, while several states have not yet announced an end to restrictions. At the federal level, President Trump last week issued guidelines 'that will allow governors to take a phased and deliberate approach to reopening their individual states.' 'Governors will be empowered to tailor an approach that meets the diverse circumstances of their own states,” President Trump said. 'And some states will be able to open up sooner than others.'  Here are the reopening timelines announced so far by all 50 states and the District of Columbia:

(NOTE: Within the next few days this week, the individual plans for many states will be adjusted, this because state governors are elected rather than appointed. To finish second or third in the response is, indeed, a huge political risk.)

Here are the reopening timelines announced so far by all 50 states and the District of Columbia:

ALABAMA -- Alabama's stay-at-home order expires April 30. Governor Kay Ivey (R) plans to follow state task force recommendations, which include first allowing small retailers, restaurants and other businesses to reopen with protective measures in place. Schools are closed for the rest of the school year.

ALASKA -- Alaska's stay-at-home order is set to expire April 21. Governor Mike Dunleavy (R) announced April 15 that nonessential medical procedures could restart May 4. K-12 schools are closed for the rest of the school year.

ARIZONA  -- Arizona's stay-at-home order expires April 30. Governor Doug Ducey (R) says he's "working with industry and business leaders on a plan for economic recovery." K-12 schools are closed for the rest of the school year.

ARKANSAS -- Arkansas does not have a stay-at-home order. On April 18, Governor Asa Hutchinson (R) launched an economic recovery task force and said he hopes to begin to ease restrictions in the state on May 4. Public schools are closed in the state for the rest of the school year.

CALIFORNIA -- There is no set end date for California's stay-at-home order. Governor Gavin Newsom (D) has joined a multistate task force, along with Oregon and Washington, to discuss reopening. He warned that some restrictions, such as masks in restaurants and bans against large gatherings, will stay in place through the summer. Schools are closed through the rest of the school year.

COLORADO -- The state’s stay-at-home order is set to expire April 26. Colorado Governor Jared Polis (D) has said social distancing measures will remain in place until “scientists are able to deliver a truly effective clinical treatment” for COVID-19. Business and school closures are set to expire April 30.

CONNECTICUT -- Connecticut’s stay-at-home order expires May 20. Governor Ned Lamont (D) has set up an advisory board to decide how to reopen the state. Connecticut is allied with Delaware, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey and Rhode Island in a multistate effort to coordinate reopening.

DELWARE -- Delaware's stay-at-home order lasts until May 15. Governor John Carney (D) has said the state is far from ready to reopen for business. Schools will be closed through the rest of the school year. “But the overall message that we’re opening up as if it’s tomorrow for me is the wrong message here in Delaware,’’ Carney told local public radio station WHYY. “I’m still saying, stay at home. Stay safe. We’re still not out of this. We still have not peaked and we will do everything we can to open when the conditions are right.”

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA -- The city's stay-at-home order expires May 15. Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) extended school closures for the remainder of the school year.

FLORIDA -- Florida’s stay-at-home order is set to expire April 30. Governor Ron DeSantis (R) is assembling a task force to discuss safely reopening the state. Beaches reopened for “essential activities” in parts of the state on April 17. After saying he might reopen schools before the end of the school year, DeSantis said April 18 that K-12 schools would be closed for the rest of the school year.

GEORGIA -- Georgia’s stay-at-home order is set to expire April 30. Governor Brian Kemp (R) announced Monday he would allow some businesses, including gyms and hair salons, to reopen and elective surgeries to resume beginning April 24. Schools are closed in the state through the rest of the school year.

HAWAII -- Hawaii’s stay-at-home order is set to expire April 30. Governor David Ige (D) has said he’s taking a “phased-in” approach to reopening the state for business. Schools are closed through the rest of the school year.

IDAHO -- Idaho’s stay-at-home order is set to expire April 30. Governor Brad Little (R) extended the order despite opposition within his own party. He has said some nonessential businesses can reopen on May 1, so long as they “prepare operational plans” that include limits on the number of people in a business at a time.

ILLINOIS -- Illinois's stay-at-home order is set to expire April 30. Governor J.B. Pritzker (D) is coordinating reopening the state with the governors of Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin. Schools are closed for the rest of the school year.

INDIANA -- Indiana's stay-at-home order expires April 30. Governor Eric Holcomb (R) has warned not all restrictions will be dropped on May 1 but said that "we are thinking early May" for starting to ease some rules. Schools are closed through the rest of the school year.

IOWA -- Iowa has the “equivalent” of a stay-at-home order until April 30. Governor Kim Reynolds (R) has mandated through a State Public Health Emergency Declaration that all nonessential businesses remain closed until then. Schools are closed through the rest of the school year.

KANSAS -- Kansas’s stay-at-home order is set to expire May 3. Governor Laura Kelly (D) said she's working on a plan to reopen the state. Schools are closed through the rest of the school year.

KENTUCKY -- Kentucky’s "Healthy at Home" order has no set end date. Governor Andy Beshear (D) said he plans to follow federal benchmarks for reopening.

LOUISIANA -- Louisiana's stay-at-home order is set to expire April 30. Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards (D) said April 17 that the state is “not where we need to be” to reopen, but he expects to be closer by May 1. Schools are closed for the rest of the school year.

MAINE -- Maine’s stay-at-home order is set to expire April 30. Governor Janet Mills (D) said she is planning a "phased-in" reopening, "tailored to the demographics and various economic sectors of our state."

MARYLAND -- Maryland does not have an end date for its stay-at-home order or its executive order to wear face coverings in any retail business or on public transportation. Governor Larry Hogan (R) has promised a "gradual rollout" of any plan to reopen. Schools are closed until May 15.
MASSACHUSETTS -- Massachusetts is under a stay-at-home order until May 4. Schools are also closed until then.

MICHIGAN -- Michigan’s stay-at-home order expires April 30. Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) has said she hopes to take some "steps forward" to reopen the state starting May 1.  "I do hope to have some relaxing come May 1, but it's two weeks away and the information and the data and our ability to test is changing so rapidly it's hard to tell precisely where we'll be in a week from now much less two," Whitmer told “Good Morning America” on April 17. She also warned that large group protests of her stay-at-home order could lead to extending her order. Michigan and several other states over the weekend saw small groups protesting that stay-at-home orders infringe on personal rights. Schools are closed through the rest of the school year.

MINNESOTA -- Minnesota’s stay-at-home order expires May 4. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) allowed some recreational activities, including golfing, boating, fishing, hunting and hiking, to restart on April 18. The state’s public schools are also closed until May 4.

MISSISSIPPI -- Mississippi's stay-at-home order expires April 27. Governor Tate Reeves (R) indicated he plans to begin allowing businesses to reopen on that date. However, schools are closed through the rest of the school year. "We can't wait until there's a cure to this," Reeves told Fox News on April 19. "We can't wait until every single person can get tested every single day to open up our economy. We have serious mental health issues going on in this country right now. And we also have a serious economic crisis going on in this country right now."

MISSOURI -- Missouri's stay-at-home order is set to expire May 3. Governor Mike Parson (R) has said Missouri's "reopening efforts will be careful, deliberate, and done in phases," and that some local municipalities may leave restrictions in place longer than those at the state level. Schools are closed through the rest of the school year.

MONTANA -- Montana’s stay-at-home order expires April 24. Governor Steve Bullock (D) has also extended school closures until that date. He plans a “phased reopening.”

NEBRASKA -- Nebraska does not have a stay-at-home order. Governor Pete Ricketts (R) has said social distancing measures and closures of restaurants and other businesses will remain in place through April. Schools are closed through the rest of the school year.

NEVADA -- Nevada's stay-at-home order ends April 30. Governor Steve Sisolak (D) has said he will announce a plan to reopen the state "soon."

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- New Hampshire's stay-at-home order expires May 4. Governor Chris Sununu (R) has said the state is "not anywhere near" fully reopening. Schools are closed in the state for the rest of the school year.

NEW JERSEY -- New Jersey's stay-at-home order does not have an end date. Governor Phil Murphy (D) has said "there will be blood on our hands" if the order is lifted too soon. Schools in the state are closed until May 15.

NEW MEXICO -- New Mexico’s stay-at-home order ends April 30. Schools are closed for the rest of the school year. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) has called for "a thoughtful, staged and flexible reopening" of the state.

NEW YORK -- New York’s stay-at-home order lasts until May 15. Schools are also closed until then. Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) has said it's time to "start opening the valve slowly and carefully" and that upstate New York may reopen more quickly than New York City. NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) has closed schools through the rest of the school year and cancelled nonessential events through June.

NORTH CAROLINA -- North Carolina's stay-at-home order expires April 29. Governor Roy Cooper (D) has said he does not plan "to lift the restrictions all at once." Schools are closed until May 15.

NORTH DAKOTA -- North Dakota does not have a stay-at-home order. However, nonessential businesses are closed in the state through April 30. Governor Doug Burgum (R) plans to partially reopen the state on May 1. Schools are closed “until further notice” but school facilities are allowed to reopen for some activities in May.

OHIO -- Ohio’s stay-at-home order will expire May 1. Governor Mike DeWine (R) says the state will begin to “open back up” on that date with a “phased-in” approach. As of Monday, schools are closed through the rest of the academic year.

OKLAHOMA -- Oklahoma has a “safer-at-home” order, which recommends people over age 65 stay home, until May 6. Governor Kevin Stitt (R) indicated he hopes the state can begin reopening May 1 if the “downward” trend in cases continues. He allowed previously suspended elective surgeries to resume as of April 24. Schools are closed for the rest of the academic year.

OREGON -- Oregon’s stay-at-home order does not have an end date yet. Many businesses are also closed indefinitely. Governor Kate Brown (D) plans a "smart and deliberate" reopening for the state. Schools are closed for the rest of the school year.

PENNSYLVANIA -- Pennsylvania's stay-at-home order expires May 8. GovernorTom Wolf (D) has said he plans to ease restrictions starting then on construction, curbside alcohol pickup and vehicle sales. “I want to caution that we will not be resuming operations as they were in February,” Wolf said April 20. “We’re going to continue to take precautions that limit our physical contact with others, and we will closely monitor this to see if it can be done safely.” Schools are closed the rest of the school year.

RHODE ISLAND -- Rhode Island's stay-at-home order expires May 8. Governor Gina Raimondo (D) plans to reopen "industry by industry in phases." Schools are closed until the end of April.

SOUTH CAROLINA -- South Carolina's "state of emergency" order closing all nonessential businesses expires April 27. All South Carolina public schools are closed through April 30. However, Governor Henry McMaster (R) is allowing some public beaches and retail stores, including department stores and bookstores, to reopen starting April 20. Public schools are closed through April 30.

SOUTH DAKOTA -- South Dakota does not have a stay-at-home order. Governor Kristi Noem (R) says social distancing efforts have worked to "flatten the curve" in the state, saying the one “hot spot” was the Smithfield Foods plant in Sioux Falls. Schools are closed in the state through the rest of the year.

TENNESSEE -- Tennessee's stay-at-home order expires until April 30. Governor Bill Lee (R) has established an economic recovery group to discuss reopening the state to business, emphasizing that more testing is needed first. He has asked that all public schools remain closed for the rest of the school year, although each individual district has to adopt his recommendation.

TEXAS -- Texas’s stay-at-home order ends April 30. Governor Greg Abbott (R) announced on April 17 that state parks would reopen on April 20 and some stores could start offering “retail to go” starting April 24. He said face coverings would still be required. State schools will remain closed for the rest of the school year.

UTAH -- Utah’s equivalent of a stay-at-home order expires May 1. Governor Gary Herbert (R) has said he hopes to reopen the state in three phases starting at the beginning of May. He said he hopes to reopen sit-down dining and gyms and allow elective surgeries starting on May 1. Governor Herbert’s phased plan indicates some "stabilization" efforts that will likely include some ongoing social distancing continuing through September. Schools are closed through the rest of the school year.

VERMONT -- Vermont’s stay-at-home order ends May 15. Schools are closed through the rest of the academic year. Governor Phil Scott (R) announced April 17 that some "low contact" businesses would be allowed to begin reopening with a two-person staff beginning April 20.

VIRGINIA -- Virginia's stay-at-home order expires June 10. All K-12 schools are closed through the rest of the school year. Governor Ralph Northam (D) extended his order closing essential businesses through May 8.

WASHINGTON -- Washington’s stay-at-home order expires May 4. Governor Jay Inslee (D) has said he may extend it. He has said the state is "not close" to reopening. Washington schools are closed for the rest of the school year.

WEST VIRGINIA -- West Virginia Governor Jim Justice (R) has not indicated an end date for his stay-at-home order. Schools and businesses remain closed until at least April 30. He said April 15 that he has begun conversations about "transitioning into the next phase" of the state's fight against the coronavirus.

WISCONSIN -- Wisconsin’s stay-at-home order expires May 26. Governor Tony Evers (D) has closed K-12 schools for the rest of the school year.

WYOMING -- Wyoming does not have a stay-at-home order. However, Governor Mark Gordon (R) has used orders to prohibit gatherings of 10 or more people and close schools and businesses like restaurants. Those orders end April 30.

* * *

WHAT IS HERD IMMUNITY, OR HOW IS THIS AN OPTION? (May 1st is 11 days away)

You are going to hear a lot about ‘herd immunity,’ which is one reason we are now bombarded by “free, no doctor’s orders required” testing across Tennessee. According to Wikipedia, here is what “herd immunity” actually means:

“Herd immunity (also called herd effect, community immunity, population immunity, or social immunity) is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through previous infections or vaccination, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune. In a population in which a large proportion of individuals possess immunity, such people being unlikely to contribute to disease transmission, chains of infection are more likely to be disrupted, which either stops or slows the spread of disease. The greater the proportion of immune individuals in a community, the smaller the probability that non-immune individuals will come into contact with an infectious individual, helping to shield non-immune individuals from infection.

CAVEAT The point at which an epidemic fades away because the infection cannot find enough new host to circulate is emphatically NOT herd immunity, because as deaths and births happen and the immunity of the population falls, the infection will return.”

royexum@aol.com

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