For our country, this has just been a fascinating 11 months of Donald Trump. For those even remotely inclined to monitor politics, this has been 11 months like no one has seen in their lifetime. For those just sick and tired of what goes on in Washington, it has been a remarkable revival.
Love him or hate him, everyone is on the Trump train. If you love him, you can't wait to see what happens next. If you hate him, you pay attention to every word and spend all day trying to figure out how to jump off the train.
Either way, it's going to be six months to remember and most folks don't believe Trump can win. I wouldn't jump to that conclusion to hastily.
Let's be clear. Trump will win Tennessee, handily. For us, the presidential election will be about watching what happens elsewhere and who eventually wins. Ignore the electoral college maps today. There will be more states in play in this election that we have seen in decades. The populist movement that is Trump could win states that President Obama carried like Pennsylvania and Ohio with real chances in places like MIchigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, New Jersey and New Hampshire. Hillary could invade the solid red Southern states of Georgia and Mississippi with an eye on Arizona and Missouri. Florida, Virginia and North Carolina went for Obama in 2008; North Carolina went for Romney four years ago. These three are truly swing states.
So what in the world are we to make of Donald Trump at this point in time? Let's summarize a few opinions and then see where it goes from here.
Let's understand the demographics:
For this election, don't get bogged down in political party registration. There is a percentage of those who will vote Republican or Democratic even if the candidates were an actual elephant or donkey. It is my belief that the percentage of voters who don't fall into those categories is larger than in decades past because of the polarizing impact of our two candidates (no disrespect to Bernie Sanders) and the rising frustration of Americans in general. In addition, 43 percent of voters identify themselves as independents -- a number that is on the rise -- so I will add a decent percentage from both establishment parties to the 43 percent. That's a lot of voters, a high enough number to move states from red to blue or blue to red.
A total of 219 million Americans are eligible to vote but only 146 million are registered to vote while 126 million voted in 2012. Of those who voted, 53 percent are women and 47 percent men. Seventy-two percent are white, 13 percent are African-American and 10 percent are Hispanic. Fifty-four percent of voters in 2012 were 45 years or older. Mitt Romney won men by a 52 percent - 47 percent margin. Obama won women by a 52 percent - 44 percent. Obama won the African-American vote by a 93 percent - 7 percent margin.
Anyone who ponders whether Trump can win should keep some of these numbers in mind.
The rise of Trump is simple:
Unlike 99.9 percent of Republican candidates or elected officials, Trump early on recognized, understood and acted on the anger of regular Americans of all persuasions that has been building and building. The people who turned out in staggering numbers that have never before been seen in a primary season are just fed up. They believe the country is all screwed up. They have seen their paychecks go down or stay the same for more than 15 years. They are realizing the impact of the fact that one in five families have no one in the household with a job. They are embarrassed by a country that cannot win with authority on the battlefield. They don't feel safe on many levels. America is a country of immigrants and most Americans are not against immigrants coming to America; however, a large majority of Americans are appalled that our country's borders are so porous and we seem powerless to stop it. Americans are dismayed by the rise in government handouts, excluding Medicare and Social Security, and just struggle to grasp the idea that America is $19 trillion in debt.
And who do they blame? The president (generic), the federal government and members of Congress. Angry Republicans especially blame Congressional elected officials.
Trump wins and Republican elites go nuts:
It was evident to me after New York that Trump was going to win the Republican nomination without a contested convention. Politics is a game of momentum and after breaking 60 percent in New York, the primary season was just playing out the string. Yet, the day after Indiana found elected Republican leaders and intellectual conservatives just losing their minds. I can offer some understanding to the intellectual conservatives because Trump is just a shock to their system. More on that later.
But, it is just unimaginable to me that the elected Republicans fell into chaos. It has gotten better as the weeks have passed but not nearly good enough. Why? Here's why. Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that Trump was "breaking with tradition" for not having, to date, released his tax returns. Tradition. Really? How could this very smart man and savvy politician sit in his stately office in Washington for the past 10 months and see anything that comes close to traditional in Trump. A traditional Republican is the last thing the more than 11 million Republicans who voted for Trump wanted. The very last thing. The deafness and blindness of Senator McConnell is staggering, and he has a healthy list of elected officials and political operatives who are just as deaf and blind (see Speaker Paul Ryan and Karl Rove). When I was learning politics from Zach Wamp 20 years ago, he told me that lesson No. 1 was that elected representatives had to listen to the voices of the people, those who voted for him and even those who did not. For the past decade, no one was listening and now the people are in revolt. The mega-business that is Washington, D.C., fears its world is falling apart.
Conservatives are interesting. Again, Zach helped define for me what being a Republican conservative meant. Granted, this was 1994. It meant that you believed in the smallest government possible, believed in a strong national defense, believed that taxes should be as low as possible and believed in the power of the Constitution. That's it. Believing in the Constitution covers a wide variety of issues, such as Second Amendment rights, states rights and religious freedom. A very healthy subset of conservatives were evangelicals, and we believed that abortion was wrong. Some were pro-llfe with no exceptions. Some were pro-life with three exceptions. All were conservatives.
It was elitist conservatives who created the Never Trump movement that spectacularly failed. Hundreds of millions of ad dollars and thousands of ads all failed in spectacular fashion. If you read these folks reasoning, it is just mind-boggling how they take this statement or that statement and turn it into a full blown policy position that requires them to stand up and vote for Hillary (BTW: Staying home or voting for someone else is a vote for Hillary). They keep wanting to impose their views on how to win a national election on Trump when the reality is that a strident conservative will never again win a national election. The demographics say so. Hey, how did Mitt Romney work out for you four years ago? Romney really has turned from statesman into a joke. His stoic and irrational attacks on Trump were probably good for three or four percentage points in Trump's favor in the primaries after he spoke. How did Marco Rubio work out for you? How did Ted Cruz work out for you?
These Never Trump folks have taken conservatism so far to the extreme that there is no room for regular people who do believe in limited government, strong national defense and low taxes. How many of the 11 million people who have voted for Trump do you think fall into this category? Virtually all of them. Take a moment and go to the red state website or the resurgent website and see for yourself how "out there" the Never Trump people are. Do I believe Trump wants less government, a strong national defense and lower taxes? Yes. Is he likely to say things that cause you to wonder along the way to November? Yes.
The tone of Trump and the media:
Look, let's not be ridiculous and pretend Trump isn't full of flaws. I suspect Trump has a few business skeletons in his closet. So did Romney and Bush 43. Does he say some really stupid things in his free-flowing rallies? Certainly. Attacking John McCain was stupid. Calling Megyn Kelly a bimbo was dumb. Attacking Carly Fiorina for her looks was childish. The list is long and distinguished but guess what. . .those angry Americans we talked about earlier just don't care. Even if they do, they will have short memories. These folks want something real. They want someone that is way, way, way outside the Beltway. They want someone who gives them hope for all those issues that have made them angry. They don't care about detailed policies at this point; they care about strength of message. Trump is a multi-billionaire that describes himself as just a regular guy, and that is just how these angry Americans see him. When he uses questionable language on the stump, most of his supporters don't care because that is how they speak. And, they really don't care how many attack ads fellow Republicans, Hillary Clinton or Clinton's super pacs run against him. It is just not going to stick. Just ask Jeb Bush.
And this also going to be the case for the relentless, massive demonization of Trump that is going to take place in the national media. Now be clear, when Trump calls the press the most dishonest people he knows, he is not talking about local media or even most media outlets in major cities. He is talking about The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times, CBS, ABC, NBC, MSNBC, all things CNN and a few others. The attacks on Trump are going to be massive and virtually daily. It won't stick. Just ask The New York Times after their story this past Sunday about Trump and women. Over the past 24 hours, it has been ripped to shreds by the very people it interviewed.
Over the past 10 months, I thought CNN was pretty fair. Then at some point last week, a switch flipped and it has moved hard back to the left-leaning bias for which it is known. They spent 24 hours talking about a story from 25 years ago where some sketchy reporter from People Magazine said Trump posed as his own PR guy. Maybe he did. Angry Americans don't care.To be fair and balanced, Fox News does lean to the right and will be tougher on Hillary than they are on Trump. But here's the crazy thing. Trump has used every one of these television outlets for 10 months. He has no problem calling in and answering every question from MSNBC or CNN. He calls into all dayparts. The results are estimated to be $200 million in free media. Not exactly a dumb thing to do. And when the head of CBS news said that Trump was ratings gold, he was absolutely correct. Trump was right that CNN loved him during the debates because of the money he made for the network.
Wrapping this up for now, there is another thing that Zach taught me about campaigns. Your voters have to have passion and energy. The passion and energy that Trump generates among voters is just astounding. Hillary can only wish she had half as much. These angry Americans have allowed Trump to create a true movement. The same can be said about "Feeling the Bern" Bernie Sanders, but The Bern's problem is that 70 percent of those attending his rallies will not vote. That won't be the case for Trumpians from coast to coast.
In the days ahead, we will see if Trump moderates his tone, as Senator John Cornyn of Texas and many others have suggested. That would be a huge mistake. A movement presses forward at all costs.
W. Davis Lundy
Ooltwah