Mark Wiedmer
At 6 o’clock tonight for fans of men’s college basketball _ and 8 p.m. for the women _ the game becomes deathly serious. As in one more loss and you’re done. Five months worth of hopes and dreams dashed by a single defeat. Or, in the case of tonight’s NCAA Tournament selection shows on CBS (men) and ESPN (women), one omission and you’re done.
That’s right, as everyone who’s hung on Joey “Brackets” Lunardi’s ever-changing list these past few days of the 68 teams who’ll ultimately make the field and those 270 or so NCAA Division I teams who’ll be left home knows, not everyone gets in the Big Dance.
March Madness turns to March Sadness before it ever begins for a lot of folks.
If the prognosticators such as ESPN’s Lunardi and CBS’s Jerry Palm are right in today’s predictions, it will be a really good day for the Southeastern Conference. Both have eight teams in the field _ Tennessee (predicted to be a No. 2 seed), Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, South Carolina and Texas A&M.
Of those eight, A&M gained the most from reaching the semifinals of the SEC Tournament before falling to Florida on Saturday. Its victories over Ole Miss and Kentucky moved it into the predicted field for both Lunardi and Palm where they had been projected to be outside the field when the weekend began.
Mississippi State similarly ended any doubt about its inclusion by blasting Tennessee on Friday afternoon. Interestingly, both State and A&M had beaten the Vols and Cats, respectively, on their home court during the regular season and both beat them worse in the tournament.
It was another example of just how balanced and rugged the SEC was this year, given that the difference between the top-seeded Vols’ conference record of 14-4 and the next four teams was one game. Except for Missouri and Vanderbilt, anybody could win on a given night, and often did.
But what happens now? Does the SEC have anyone capable of getting to the Final Four? Could Tennessee reach the sport’s final weekend in Phoenix for the first time ever? Is Kentucky a fraud because it can’t guard opposing guards? Is Auburn actually the best team in the league? Or might that be Florida, who’ll face Auburn today in the SEC tourney title game?
First, UT. The Vols have lost two in a row and probably turned in their worst performance of the season against State. Zakai Zeigler stormed off the court in Nashville without shaking hands. Dalton Knecht, the SEC Player of the Year scored 14 points. Maybe all this is just anxiousness to get to the main tournament _ after all, the Vols are probably the oldest team in the league and they know the only thing that really cements your legacy is a deep NCAA tourney _ or maybe they’ve peaked too early. It won’t take long to find out.
As for Kentucky, the Wildcats might be able to shoot their way into the Sweet 16 _ they lead the nation in 3-point shooting _ but both Lunardi and Palm have them possibly facing physical Wisconsin in the second round, and that’s the kind of team that could send UK packing prior to the third round for the fourth year in a row. Not exactly the tournament history Big Blue Nation expects from coach John Calipari, the highest paid coach in the SEC, if not all of college basketball.
When Auburn’s guards are knocking down 3-pointers, they may be as dangerous as any team in the country. As Vols fans know, Bruce Pearl is as good as any coach in the country, especially late in games and coming out of timeouts, and they may play harder night in and night out than anyone.They should reach the round of 16 and after that, it’s always a little bit the luck of the draw.
Same could be said for Florida, which seems to be peaking at the right time and old men in the backcourt due to the transfer portal.
As for the rest of college basketball, Houston looked unbeatable until they got run out of the gym by Iowa State in the Big 12 title game. Purdue has won but done it by mostly narrow margins all year and Saturday’s Big 10 semifinal loss to Wisconsin only heightened the sense that this will be the first No. 1 seed to fall.
North Carolina appears to be a No. 1 seed, but the Tar Heels lost the ACC tourney title to N.C. State, which was playing its fifth game in five days. The only other school to win five games in five days in its conference tournament,and win the NCAA tourney _ UConn behind brilliant guard Kemba Walker in 2011.
And speaking of the defending champ Huskies, they once again appear to be the favorite to become the first school to win back-to-back titles since Florida in 2006 and 2007.
Danny Hurley has them playing as well or better than any team in the country at the right time. That doesn’t mean in this most unpredictable of seasons someone can’t knock them off on a given night. It just means that the odds are they won’t. Kind of like South Carolina on the women’s side.
But first you have to get there, and today, Selection Sunday, is the day for making dreams come true and breaking them. And what better day to hope for good luck with your selection and tournament draw than St. Patty’s Day and finding a four-leaf clover to guide you to the Final Four.
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Email Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@mccallie.org