Map 1
African American Population Decline in Chattanooga
The 2020 Census Redistricting data shows that both the White and Hispanic population in the city of Chattanooga increased between 2010 and 2020. The African American population decreased. These numbers only include those who classify as a single race.
White Alone, Non-Hispanic grew from 93,698 to 98,977 (+5,279)
Hispanic grew from 9,225 to 16,581 (+7,356)
African American declined from 58,256 to 52,384 (-5,872)
Recent community debate has focused on the reported decline of Chattanooga’s African American population between 2010 and 2020. Is it really happening? Are the data reliable? Some have suggested the Census data are less robust than in previous years due to the COVID pandemic in 2020. A recent Census simulation by The Urban Institute found “Black and Hispanic/Latinx people had a net undercount of more than 2.45 and 2.17 percent, respectively, in our simulated 2020 Census.”
Others have claimed that people are voting with their feet, seeking more affordable housing or better employment opportunities elsewhere. Census data from the American Community Survey (at least since 2018) have shown that African Americans are leaving Chattanooga. A 2019 analysis of American Community Survey data from 2018 showed an exodus of African Americans living in census tracts in and near downtown Chattanooga to suburban locations. The decreases in African American population are concentrated in neighborhoods near downtown. As such, we don’t believe the documented population decline is primarily due to a compromised 2020 Census.
Table 1 shows data from the 2020 Census used for redistricting. The African American population in Hamilton County dropped by 5.1 percent, a loss of 3,472. At the regional level, Bradley County (+1,009) and Catoosa County (+466) experienced a gain of African American residents. In total, the African American population in the region dropped by 2,875.
Table 1: African American Population Change in Chattanooga MSA by County, 2010-2020
|
County
|
2020
|
2010
|
Change
|
|
Hamilton, TN
|
64,428
|
67,900
|
-3,472
|
|
Marion, TN
|
1,047
|
1,012
|
+35
|
|
Sequatchie, TN
|
72
|
21
|
+51
|
|
Bradley, TN
|
5,238
|
4,219
|
+1,019
|
|
Catoosa, GA
|
1,858
|
1,392
|
+466
|
|
Dade, GA
|
145
|
142
|
+3
|
|
Walker, GA
|
2,871
|
2,829
|
+42
|
|
TOTAL
|
70,421
|
73,296
|
-1,856
|
SOURCE: U.S. Census, 2020 Redistricting Data.
SOURCE: U.S. Census, 2020 Redistricting Data.
Within Hamilton County, demographic transition among African Americans was most pronounced in communities near downtown Chattanooga. Table 2 (see appendix) lists Census Tracts that experienced an African American population decline of at least 100. For these 19 Census Tracts (not all tracts in the city of Chattanooga), the African American population declined by 7,659. Most Census Tracts where the African American population increased by at least 100 were located in suburban Hamilton County. Table 3 (see appendix) shows a total growth of 4,926 African Americans in these Census Tracts. Simultaneously the white population (includes Hispanics) in the 24 tracts experiencing African American population gains grew by 289.
Hamilton County and Chattanooga are experiencing rapid population transition. The number of African Americans in the city is decreasing while some suburban areas are experiencing modest increases. The growth is occurring primarily east of downtown around the airport, the Bonny Oaks corridor, and southeast of the city near East Ridge and tracts along the Georgia border, as shown in Maps 1 and 2.
Root Causes of Transition
Demographic transition is a lagging indicator. That is, it happens after a prolonged period of change. Leaders from Chattanooga’s political, business, and philanthropic communities embraced a radical redevelopment ethos in the early 2000s that continues today. Hundreds of millions of dollars were spent by local government and philanthropies to prime the pump of redevelopment downtown and in surrounding urban neighborhoods. Leaders from other cities have sent delegations to Chattanooga to learn how the turnaround was orchestrated.
Prior to the explosion of growth on East Main Street and Jefferson Heights, civic elites actively promoted gentrification. “If gentrification is about restoring those homes and getting enough confidence in the market that this is a good neighborhood, bringing those houses back to life with people living in them, that’s not a bad thing. That’s a good thing” (Sarah Morgan of the Lyndhurst Foundation and Community Impact of Chattanooga, 2012).
A cursory review of 990 reports for large Chattanooga Foundations shows robust funding in the early 2000s to CNE for “acquisition of properties in Jefferson Heights” and “home buyer incentives for MLK neighborhood” type grants. Throughout this time period, millions of dollars flowed to River City Corporation focusing on downtown and Main Street redevelopment. Grants were also given for the purposes of “artist recruitment” and “artist housing incentive” projects in Jefferson Heights. Millions more were spent on placemaking projects to change the look, feel, and vibe of the community. Simultaneously, more millions were invested in bike lanes, urban greenways, and riverfront beautification and museums. The following list includes the purposes of specific Foundation grants from that time:
Highland Park Land Acquisition
Ross Hotel Acquisition
Animate Bijou Building
MLK Corridor Project
Downtown Revitalization
MLK Mural
East 5th Housing
Property Acquisition
New Park @ Main and 13th
Downtown Riverwalk
Revitalize E. Main
MLK Façade
Jefferson Heights Park
Streetscape Main St.
Main Street Improvements
Artist Housing Incentives
MLK Home Buyers Incentives
Home Buyers Incentives Ft. Negley, Highland Park
Housing Incentives and acquisition of properties in Jefferson Heights
Housing Incentives and acquisition Highland Park
Buy-Hold Activities in 4 CIC Neighborhoods
The demographic transition that picked up steam after 2010 was planned, coordinated, well-funded, and intentional. It was planned in boardrooms by civic leaders with little input from community residents most impacted by the changes—often times by unelected leaders. The increase in redevelopment activity attracted investors and real estate speculators. These forces contributed to rising property values, more new development, and an influx of tech workers, entrepreneurs, and empty nesters—primarily white residents.
That’s why radical demographic transition has occurred. The trend is real. Bringing in new residents was the goal. It succeeded. It has been loudly celebrated by leaders in Chattanooga. It is a brand marketed to tech entrepreneurs and business startups. Moving forward, real estate investors will continue to make money and inner-urban neighborhoods will continue to displace remaining working class African Americans, Hispanics, and Whites.
Tradeoffs
What has the African American community gained from the redevelopment of Chattanooga? If people are sharing in the bounty of growth, the demographic changes might be tolerable.
According to the ACS, the home ownership rate for African Americans in Chattanooga declined from 38.9 percent in 2010 to 31.2 percent in 2019 (U.S. Census, 5-year estimates). The total number of African American “owner occupied” homes declined from 8,934 to 7,387 during the same time period. The 2019 median household income of African Americans in Chattanooga was $30,539—53.9 percent of the White Median Household Income (ACS, 5-year estimates).
From this limited analysis, the data seem underwhelming that African Americans in Chattanooga are experiencing widespread standard of living gains. Granted, some African Americans have relocated to Chattanooga and others have successfully started new businesses in the technology economy. But, on the whole, it seems as if the African American community has not made substantial gains in the last decade. Communities have been lost. Home ownership is down. Household income gains have been weak. These are the unintended consequences of the Chattanooga Renaissance. The people who have been the most negatively impacted by these changes were never included in the process where civic leaders made their choices. And now they have to live with them, but not near downtown.
Future Reports
When the full 2020 Census is released in 2022, the Unity Group will conduct a comprehensive State of Black Chattanooga report to chronicle social, economic, and demographic changes between 2010 and 2020.
The Unity Group
Dr. Ken Chilton
APPENDIX
Table 2: African American Population Decline in Hamilton County, 2010-2020
|
Tract
|
2020
|
2010
|
Change
|
|
122
|
1,737
|
2,705
|
-968
|
|
12
|
2,235
|
3,005
|
-770
|
|
124
|
728
|
1,442
|
-714
|
|
25
|
1,821
|
2,396
|
-575
|
|
33
|
4486
|
5023
|
-537
|
|
32
|
2374
|
2832
|
-458
|
|
4
|
2,513
|
2,940
|
-427
|
|
11
|
717
|
1,090
|
-373
|
|
13
|
706
|
1,075
|
-369
|
|
29
|
1,147
|
1,515
|
-368
|
|
114.02
|
3427
|
3791
|
-364
|
|
14
|
518
|
880
|
-362
|
|
123
|
2,654
|
2,968
|
-314
|
|
26
|
885
|
1,191
|
-306
|
|
18
|
382
|
629
|
-247
|
|
8
|
255
|
402
|
-147
|
|
30
|
779
|
919
|
-140
|
|
105.02
|
123
|
237
|
-114
|
|
16
|
1,906
|
2,012
|
-106
|
|
TOTAL
|
29,393
|
21,714
|
-7,659
|
Table 3: African American Population Growth in Hamilton County, 2010-2020
|
Tract
|
Growth
|
|
104.35
|
100
|
|
34
|
102
|
|
114.49
|
103
|
|
117
|
108
|
|
114.11
|
112
|
|
119
|
127
|
|
113.23
|
128
|
|
104.31
|
137
|
|
112.06
|
148
|
|
104.33
|
184
|
|
114.13
|
184
|
|
114.45
|
195
|
|
20
|
206
|
|
114.47
|
211
|
|
116
|
215
|
|
113.21
|
221
|
|
118
|
229
|
|
114.46
|
241
|
|
114.42
|
254
|
* * *
Just a minor observation: It isn't "Black Flight" when people are forced out. It's the darker more sinister side and outcome of gentrification.
Like "White Flight" in 1960s and '70s, the term "flight", when used in such a way as to define people leaving an area in high volume, suggest people left of their own accord, without any heavy-handed shady dealings going on. Many of Chattanooga black elected and community leaders also had a hand in forcing blacks from the city. At the very least they should have been able to predict the outcome.
Remember some Chattanoogans, white/black whatever, boasting about their "Weed 'n Seed" initiatives?
Brenda Washington
Map 2