In Mayor Kelly’s recent re-election campaign, he touted his first term accomplishments ad nauseam with endless television/print media ads. It was a campaign where his election was assured from the beginning. His negative “hit” mailer on an opponent who did not have a “snowball's chance on a hot summer day” of winning was not necessary and raises questions about Mayor Kelly’s judgment and that of his campaign committee. All he needed to do was to truthfully communicate his first term accomplishments, disappointments and second term goals. That level of transparency and honesty registers with voters.
Mayor Kelly announced a 23 percent reduction in crime over the last two years, presumably 2023 and 2024. Chief Chambers, an excellent appointment and deserving of our full-support, reported a 44 percent increase in crime during the initial five months of 2024 along with a 25 percent increase in shootings. I acknowledge caution when comparing two full years versus five months can be misleading. It is probable that the “23 percent decrease in crime” reflects a drop in the number of cases involving CPD contact/intervention. I seriously doubt there has been any drop in crime. So, Mayor Kelly, your statement of a 23 percent reduction in crime does not edit for reasonability and most likely is very distressing for criminal defense attorneys in need of clients. However, I do understand those running for elected office get caught up in the moment making embellished claims.
Quoting “In its annual survey, Bureau of Justice Statistics asks crime victims whether they reported their crime to police. It found that in 2022, only 41.5 percent of violent crimes and 31.8 percent of household property crimes were reported to authorities. BJS notes that there are many reasons why crime might not be reported, including fear of reprisal or of “getting the offender in trouble,” a feeling that police “would not or could not do anything to help,” or a belief that the crime is “a personal issue or too trivial to report.”
Most of the crimes that are reported to police, meanwhile, are not solved, at least based on an FBI measure known as the clearance rate. That’s the share of cases each year that are closed, or “cleared,” through the arrest, charging and referral of a suspect for prosecution, or due to “exceptional” circumstances such as the death of a suspect or a victim’s refusal to cooperate with a prosecution. In 2022, police nationwide cleared 36.7 percent of violent crimes that were reported to them and 12.1 percent of the property crimes that came to their attention.” (Source: Pew Research Center reporting BJS Survey Results)
The Pew Research Center is a good source of information along with identification of their sources.
Based on murder and property crime rates per 100,000, as determined by FBI crime reports, The U.S. News & World Report listed Memphis #1, Chattanooga #16 and Nashville #23 in their Top 25 Most Dangerous Places in 2024-2025.
There is merit in Hamilton County and the various communities within the county doing a comprehensive crime analysis survey with the BJS providing the survey instrument and guidance. What will the results show? It should help in formulating effective strategies for addressing crime issues in our county and communities. I believe most of us desire a safe environment for our family, friends and community.
Donald Klasing