Roy Exum
Steve Spurrier, the ol’ ball coach, figures it’s time for the football gods to smile upon Georgia in tomorrow night’s National Championship game. And Charles Barkley wouldn’t hurt Alabama coach Nick Saban’s feelings for the world but he, too, gives the Bulldogs the nod in Indianapolis Monday night at 8 p.m. (ESPN) So how come there is so much Vegas money on underdog Alabama the odds actually dropped Friday afternoon from 3 points to 2 ½?
Georgia, unbeaten in the regular season, was also favored when the two college titans tangled in the SEC title game on Dec.
4, and suffered a 41-24 thumping. So while many of the experts are picking Georgia, a whopping 91 percent of the bettors are putting their money behind Alabama, cementing the age-old betting parlor rule: ‘Never, ever bet against Alabama when the Tide is catching points.’
The best illustration comes from Houston where furniture store baron “Mattress Mack” just laid out a $1.2 million wager on Alabama. He made a straight-up bet (+125) that will return $1.5 million IF Alabama wins. Jim McIngvale is using the bet to hedge an offer that if any Alabama fans buy a mattress from his store before the game, he’ll refund the money and the customer keeps the mattress. (In a straight-up bet, Alabama must win outright for McIngvale to cash.)
“We’ve done a lot of these promotions in the past,” Mack told Jeremy Willis of ESPN, “With this game getting so much attention we wanted to be part of it. Actually, I was surprised to see Alabama a 3-point underdog. They have good name recognition and brand awareness for fans, so this comes with a good, high perceived value.”
“Mattress Mac” said he expected to do $3-4 million in mattress sales before kickoff. Apparently McIngvale loves the action. Before Super Bowl LV, he bet $3.46 million on the underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers and gave every Tampa Bay fan who bought mattresses in the promotion their money back. Then again, he had $11 million in play for the Houston-Washington World Series and the Nationals won. He also dropped another million on Houston to win the NCAA Basketball Tournament. But he sells mattresses!
Circa Sports, a Vegas sportsbook, said it had a number of $100,000 bets (its house maximum) on Alabama and at Caesars it was said 90 percent of the bets and 90 percent of the money was on Alabama. Caesars acknowledged a $300,000 money bet by a Louisiana patron who likes the Crimson Tide.
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ME? WHAT’S MY PICK TOMORROW NIGHT?
Having watched Georgia flatten Michigan, 34-11 in the championship semis was impressive but Alabama just took care of business in its 27-6 semifinal waltz past Cincinnati. I think Saban is as cagey as a fox and the fact previously unbeaten Cincinnati didn’t score a touchdown against Alabama was all I needed to know.
So, yes, I am picking Alabama to win by about 10 points because there is nothing that has changed my mind since the 41-24 game on Dec. 4. Oh, Bryce Young, the Tide quarterback, has won the Heisman to no one’s surprise and RB Brian Robinson’s 204 rushing yards against the Bearcats strengthens the foundation. Yet nowhere can I find Alabama has gotten worse since they beat the Bulldogs by 17 points last month.
Spurrier, long since retired, hopes Georgia’s delightful coach Kirby Smart jiggles its defense…“they can’t sit in the zones and they’ve got to pressure the quarterback (Young.)” Georgia’s defense, roundly thought to be the best in the nation, was flummoxed by the Tide.” What changes that in five weeks?
It wouldn’t be a stretch to say Georgia’s talent is on the same scale with Alabama, but where Georgia has a great stable of race horses, the Tide has thoroughbreds who embrace Saban’s vision. There is SEC Player of the Year, the fearsome Will Anderson, yet it is Tennessee transfer Henry To’oTo’o who leads the team in tackles.
I don’t put much truck in the fact Alabama has beaten Kirby seven straight times. Alabama has beaten a lot of teams in straight runs and all that stat shows is that Saban knows what he is doing and how to get there. I want Georgia to play well, and it would be great for the SEC if the football gods would smile down on Athens with a National championship tomorrow.
But the honest truth is Alabama has done nothing to get worse after rolling past Georgia by 17 points last month.
Tomorrow night I have no reason not to expect the same.
Royexum@aol.com