Roy Exum: A Matter Of Time

I sensed “something evil this way comes” when, in the middle of my “Morning Readings” on Sunday I went to the Orlando Sentinel’s website to peer in on the recent surge of COVID-19 virus. There is a new Delta variant that has just hit Florida and I wondered how bad it was. Apparently those who are vaccinated have a good resistance but for those who are not, it is pretty scary.

I had no idea how scary. Mind you, Florida has a population of 19.1 million people with a 60 percent vaccination rate. Tennessee has a population of 7 million with a 44 percent vaccination rate. Get this: Florida is off the charts, with 10 times more cases in less than a month. Four weeks ago, Florida was averaging about 1,500 new cases a day; now it is 13,256. That’s more than the entire nation has been averaging on a slow day in June.

So, I checked Tennessee on the COVID dashboard and last week we had 7,844 new cases – a jump of 145 percent from a week ago. Tennessee deaths are 131 (about a 300 percent increase) and it is obvious, even to someone a thick as myself, it is just a matter of time when Delta variant – already here - ignites a surge similar to Florida’s in Tennessee. And, remember, we have 20 percent fewer vaccinated than Florida.

Believe me, this isn’t political and this isn’t hype. These are real-life figures from two states away, and I am a realist. Florida hospitals are beginning to limit elective surgeries and ban visitors and the one thing any of us can do is get the vaccine as fast as you can. Virtually all of Florida’s hospital admissions are those who are not vaccinated.

Here an excerpt of how the Orlando Sentinel described Thursday’s weekly report from the state’s Department of Health:

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282 COVID DEATHS, MORE THAN 73,000 CASES LAST WEEK 

The state Department of Health reported 73,166 new coronavirus cases this week among Florida residents to bring the cumulative total to 2,479,975. With 282 more fatalities, 38,670 Florida residents are now dead.

This week’s 282 deaths are up from the 231 last week, but deaths can take several days or weeks to be reported. Cases, though, jumped by more than 27,000 week over week, and positivity jumped as well to more than 15 percent.

The jump in weekly positive cases has not been seen since the end of January when the state was in the midst of a massive surge in positivity (testing) and COVID-related deaths, but also within the first months of vaccine availability. Reported deaths have been climbing the last three weeks, but are not near the January and February tolls that saw more than 1,000 weekly reported deaths several times.

Of note, the new state reports deal only with Florida resident cases – instead of residents and non-residents combined – because the non-resident numbers are no longer available in the new reports.

Across the state, hospitalizations are rising with 5,548 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 for the seven-day period from July 15-21, according to the latest White House report. In comparison, 3,652 were hospitalized the previous week. The week before that, it was 2,369.

Statewide, 11,469,755 residents, or 60 percent of ages 12 and up, have received at least one vaccination shot, including 9,914,406, who have completed their shot regimens. The count is a snapshot through July 22.

Statewide, the latest weekly positivity (testing) rate reported by the Florida Department of Health was 15.1 percent, but that’s for new cases only and excludes anyone who previously tested positive. That is up from 11.5 percent reported last week.