Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration Commissioner Jim Bryson on Thursday announced that revenues for March were $1.6 billion, which is $33.3 million less than the budgeted estimates and $69.3 million less than March of last year.
General fund revenues were $35.4 million less than the March estimate, and the four other funds that share in state tax revenues were $2.1 million more than the estimates.
"March tax collections were slightly lower than projected estimates," Commissioner Bryson said. "Sales tax receipts, which reflect February's consumer activity, were likely impacted by adverse weather conditions. Corporate tax collections came in slightly below target but remained largely in line with expectations. All other tax categories, taken together, met projections.
"Although we fell short of our monthly target, year-to-date revenues remain just below forecast. We will continue to closely monitor economic indicators and revenue trends to maintain fiscal stability."
On a year-to-date basis, August through March, total tax revenues are 0.08 percent less than the budget estimate, or $10.5 million less than expectations. When compared to this same period last year, total tax revenues have decreased by $17 million or 0.13 percent.
General fund revenues are 0.24 percent less than the year-to-date budgeted estimate, or $27.1 million. Likewise, year-to-date general fund collections compared to this same period last year have increased 0.30 percent or $33.2 million.
Individual tax performance compared to March 2025 Budgeted Estimates:
Sales Taxes: Below estimate by 3.59 percent or $39.7 million
Corporate Taxes (Franchise & Excise): Below estimate by 1.01 percent or $2.8 million
Fuel Taxes: Above estimate by 10.39 percent or $9.1 million
All other taxes: Above estimate by 0.07 percent or $0.1 million
Year-to-date performance compared to Budgeted Estimates:
Sales Taxes: Above estimate by 0.90 percent or $85.2 million
Corporate Taxes (Franchise & Excise): Below estimate by 9.65 percent or $182.1 million
Fuel Taxes: Above estimate by 0.96 percent or $8.1 million
All other taxes: Above estimate by 6.42 percent or $78.3 million
Individual tax performance compared to March 2024:
Sales Taxes: Down 2.73 percent or $29.9 million
Corporate Taxes (Franchise & Excise): Down 13.90 percent or $44.0 million
Fuel Taxes: Up 5.07 percent or $4.6 million
All other taxes: Equal to last year
Individual tax performance compared to August 2023 through March 2024:
Sales Taxes: Up 4.61 percent or $423.2 million
Corporate Taxes (Franchise & Excise): Down 22.09 percent or $483.3 million
Fuel Taxes: Up 1.46 percent or $12.2 million
All other taxes: Up 2.44 percent or $30.9 million
The budgeted revenue estimates for 2024–2025 are based on the State Funding Board’s consensus recommendation from Nov. 29, 2023, which was adopted by the second session of the 113th General Assembly in April 2024. These estimates also incorporate any revenue changes enacted during the 2024 General Assembly session. Monthly estimates for fiscal year 2024–2025 are available on the state’s website at https://www.tn.gov/content/tn/finance/fa/fa-budget-information/fa-budget-rev.html.
On Nov. 25, 2024, the State Funding Board met once again and recommended updated revenue projections for the 2024–2025 fiscal year. The Board adopted revised revenue growth ranges of negative 1.68 percent to negative 1.34 percent for total taxes and negative 2.50 percent to negative 1.91 percent for general fund revenues. The Board’s projected upper limit and the growth outlined in Governor Lee’s budget proposal for the first session of the 114th General Assembly reflect no changes to the current Department of Revenue’s state tax revenue estimates for the 2024–2025 fiscal year.