Mark Wiedmer
Ah, isn’t this the day we’ve all been waiting months, if not years for? November 5th. The Big Reveal. Just kick back in your den tonight, order a pizza and await, um, the initial 12-team college football playoff bracket.
You thought something more important was being decided tonight? At least here in the South, what could be more important than learning if Alabama might be on the outside of the playoffs? Will Tennessee need to beat Georgia in Athens in a couple of weeks to get in? What about Ohio State? Penn State? Texas A&M?
ARMY?
At 7 p.m, answers to those questions and others will be revealed before the official 12-team bracket is announced at noon on Sunday, Dec.
8. Do I expect Tennessee to have its name called tonight? Yes. Do I expect the Vols to make the playoffs on Dec. 8? Again, yes. Do I expect Bama to be there? Depends on if they can win at LSU on Saturday night and at Oklahoma in two weeks.
Call me harsh, but when five schools - Oregon, Miami, Indiana, BYU and Army - are still undefeated, and 11 other schools in the Top 25 have but one loss and Bama doesn’t have any of those 11 on its remaining schedule to pad its resume, it would seem the Tide can ill-afford another loss the rest of the way. And Saturday’s opponent, LSU, is in the same boat, though at least the Bayou Bengals are playing in the friendly (to them) confines of Tiger Stadium.
So who should have their names called tonight? No. 1 Oregon is a lock. So, too, undefeated MIami and Indiana, at least for now. After that, expect Ohio State and Georgia to have their names called, as well as Tennessee and Notre Dame. That’s seven of the 12. Throw in Texas and BYU and we’re down to three. Again, for now, let’s put in SMU and Army. Then, drum roll, please, No. 12 will be Boise State.
These are almost assuredly NOT the dynamite dozen who will be in the final bracket. Boise State and SMU, for instance, can probably suffer no more losses and make the field. And what of Georgia or Tennessee. Should the Bulldogs be upset at dangerous Ole Miss this weekend, they’d have to beat Tennessee in Athens to make the field. And just for fun, let Tennessee lose at Georgia and valiant Vanderbilt and the Vols could vanish from the tournament.
But what if Tennessee beat both Georgia and Vandy? Would it not be a top four seed? Would it not suddenly be a favorite to win it all now that its defense is at least as strong as Josh Heupel’s offense?
If I’m picking the four best teams at this point, I’m going with Oregon, Ohio State, Miami and Georgia, with Ohio State to get revenge against Oregon in the national title game if they end up in opposite brackets.
But it could just as easily be Miami and Georgia if the Bulldogs’ offense solves its recent turnover problem.
Then, at least to see who gets in the playoff, let us focus on the feel-good story of the year _ the Black Knights of Army. All logic says their Cinderella story ends on November 23 at 7 p.m. inside Yankee Stadium when they’ll face a heavily favored Notre Dame team.
But what if Army prevails? Now the Selection Committee would have one giant-sized mess on its hands. Why? Because the Black Knights’ game against archrival Navy isn’t until December 14, the weekend after the final bracket is announced. An undefeated Army team would seem a guarantee for the playoff. But an Army team with one marquee win (Notre Dame) and a loss to Navy would seem not to qualify. Do you put a 13th team on hold, an either-or scenario to await the Army-Navy outcome? Do you just put Army in and pray it knocks off the Midshipman?
Even a 12-team playoff could have its unforeseen drama.
And you thought picking a President was hard.
(Email Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@mccallie.org)