Randy Smith: SEC Picks Week 1

It's finally here. The college football season kicks off for real this weekend and it's been more than seven months since we crowned Ohio State the 2024 national champion. Very few times in the past has the defending champion opened the season with the pre-season number one team in America. More on that game between the Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns later.

Friday

Auburn at Baylor 8:00 Fox

The Tigers are hoping to improve on last year's 5-7 mark and head coach Hugh Freeze says he likes this year's squad. Freeze is hoping for improvement on offense and with heavy use of the Transfer Portal he should get it. Auburn is a slight favorite in the game with Baylor but this is a tough opener. War Eagle!

Auburn 27 Baylor 23

Saturday

#8 Alabama at Florida State 3:30 ABC

This is one of several marquee match ups in week one. Alabama failed to make the College Football Playoffs and finished 9-4 in Kalen DeBoer's first season in Tuscaloosa in 2024. Of course replacing a legend like Nick Saban is tougher than one would think. The Crimson Tide is favored to win, but the Seminoles are looking for redemption after a disastrous 2024 campaign. FSU should be better than a year ago but so should Alabama. The Tide had a great recruiting year and eventually I believe DeBoer will be very successful.

Alabama 30 Florida State 22

Alabama A&M at Arkansas 4:15 SECN

Sam Pittman saved his job last year by leading the Hogs to a 7-6 mark and that includes a bowl win over Texas Tech. Arkansas hit the Transfer Portal hard and improved the team speed and Pittman is also hoping his team plays with more physicality. Of course, getting everyone to play together with that many new people is a real challenge. Pittman likes this team but it remains to be seen just how good the Razorbacks will be. They will get a win in their opener.

Arkansas 40 Alabama A&M 13

Long Island University at #15 Florida 7:00 ESPN+

This could be the year of the Gator. Billy Napier has his team moving in the right direction after a couple of less than mediocre seasons. Florida won four in a row to end the 2024 season and finished with a record of 8-5. A lot of credit should go to quarterback D.J. Lagway who is being touted as a real Heisman Trophy candidate. The top QB prospect in 2024 is expected to play this week despite a lingering injury but the Gators won't really need him against Long Island U

Florida 56 LIU 14

Marshall at #5 Georgia 3:30 ESPN

The Bulldogs are breaking in a new starting quarterback as Gunner Stockton replaces Carson Beck who is now at Miami, via the Portal. Stockton played well when Beck went down with an arm injury. The 'Dawgs also have a lot of newcomers as well, byut there is no questioning Coach Kirby Smart's talent level. Marshall is looking at a huge payday this weekend from Georgia but a victory will be awfully tough to get.

Georgia 47 Marshall 14

Toledo at Kentucky

The Wildcats had a less than mediocre season a year ago winning just four games but one of those four victories came against heavily favored Ole Miss. I'm not sure things will be much better in Lexington this year. Mark Stoops has taken Kentucky to a whole other level of success but he may be nearing the end of his tenure. To return the Cats to a bowl team will take a lot of luck and a lot of breaks. Only time will tell.

Kentucky 33 Toledo 10

The Bulldogs are still trying to rebuild under head coach Jeff Lebby. MSU was just 2-10 in 2024 and while they should improve in 2025 they're still not a really good team. Playing on the road will be tough and playing at a big rival could be even tougher. It's extremely important for the Bulldogs to get an opening win and they should get one.

Mississippi State 27 Southern Miss 17

Illinois State at #18 Oklahoma 6:00 ESPN+

After three years of mediocrity, Coach Brent Venables is hoping for a lot of improvement in Norman this season. The Sooners were 6-7 a year ago and only 2-6 in the SEC but they should be improved considerably in 2025. . Oklahoma hasn't been a factor in college football for several seasons and there is a lot of heat on Venables as he enters his fourth season and a match up Michigan is looming in week two.

Oklahoma 38 Illinois State 14

Georgia State at #21 Ole Miss 7:45 SECN

Lane Kiffin barely missed the C FB Playoffs last year and an upset loss to lowly Kentucky has haunted him for months. Even though Jaxson Dart is no longer in Oxford, the Johnny Rebs have a more than capable replacement in sophomore Austin Simmons. Dart is the all-time passing leader at Ole Miss but Simmons brings a different look. This could be a big year for Ole Miss and it starts with a big win over Georgia State.

Ole Miss 56 Georgia State 20.

Texas San Antonio at #19 Texas A&M 7:00 ESPN

The Aggies had the highest scoring offense in SEC play last year at just under thirty points per game and they could be even better in 2025. A lot will depend on how improved the A&M defense will be. It was not good at all down the stretch as the Aggies lost three in a row to end the season and that includes blowing a 17 point lead to Southern Cal in their bowl game loss. Mike Elko has done a good job but his team needs to take things to the next level. That starts this week with UTSA.

Texas A&M 44 UTSA 17

#1 Texas at #3 Ohio State 12:00 Noon Fox

This is listed as the biggest game of the day and rightly so. The defending national champions hosting the pre-season number one team in America. It's also a coming out party for highly regarded Texas quarterback Arch Manning. If he struggles in his first game, the Longhorns have no chance. They're favored by 1.5 points in the game and Steve Sarkisian's team will have a tough time going through the entire season unbeaten. It begins with a win at Ohio State this weekend.

Texas 31 Ohio State 27

Charleston Southern at Vanderbilt 7:00 ESPN+

Vandy quarterback Diego Garcia boldly stated his Commodores could win a national championship but he could be the only man in America to believe that, Vanderbilt snuck up on a lot of people a year ago but everyone is well aware of the Commodores in 2025 and what they can do. Vandy was 7-6 a year ago and they lost three in a row prior to a bowl game win over Georgia Tech. I agree with Garcia in that vandy should be better but the 'Dores are not national championship caliber.

Vanderbilt. 38 Charleston Southern 14

# 24 Tennessee vs Syracuse in Atlanta 12: Noon ABC

Joey Aguilar is the key component for Tennessee and i personally believe he's going to have a great season. There are a lot of questions to be answered for the Big Orange and most of them will be addressed against Syracuse on Saturday. By the way, Coach Josh Heupel said this week that embattled standout Boo Carter should be ready to go this weekend which will be a big plus. There was a possibility that Carter would leave the Vols but that has since been resolved. The Volunteers are favored to win by a couple of touchdowns and they could win by much more.

Tennessee 31 Syracuse 17

Sunday

Virginia Tech at #13 South Carolina 3:00 ESPN

When the 2024 season ended, the Gamecocks were as hot as any team in the country, winning six regular season games in a row prior to their bowl loss to Illinois. Coach Shane Beamer has a quality quarterback in LaNorris Sellers and a talented defense as well. That's a great recipe for success and as Beamer returns to the campus where his father Frank enjoyed tremendous success, it's a bit ironic. South Carolina is a very good football team.

South Carolina 30 Virginia Tech 13